Monday, August 14, 2006

Another Crappy Monday

I closed the ATHR position for a profit at 9:35 and took a small flier in CELL that I also closed for a small profit. Had GLW for about 5 minutes and was stopped out for a small loss. All in all a crappy day.

DIA tells the whole story in a single chart. Once again a collapse into the close. I saw it in the open it was so weak. Then around 12:30 it printed a hanging man and that was that for the day. All down hill from there.

Tomorrow could be more of the same. The three sisters printed mixed signals at the close with two doji hammers and a moderate white candle on the DIA in the last hour.

The VIX remains benign although earlier today it was showing some life it finished 4 cents off Friday's reading. The up/down ratio gained some to 49% which is still neutral and the 20 day high/20 day low readings are 347 and 488. That weights a bit in favor of an up day tomorrow. On the other hand the three sisters all printed a black candlestick for the day's festivities (close below open but above the last close) and I always take that as a negative. It says that there isn't enough interest to move the market higher.

That figures because it is, after all, August and August means vacations and that's where most folks are. As I mentioned the other day it doesn't take much to drop the market and after the programs dropped out at 12 or so, the selling began.

The three sisters are also oversold by stochastics and their counterpart ETFs, DOG, SH and PSQ are all overbought.

So I'm going to ignore the black candles for now and guess that tomorrow will be sideways up like today.

Emphasis on "guess".

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