Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Wednesday We Wrap

Read somewhere today that it "isn't a good time to buy stocks." I don't know - in my opinion - it is never a "good time to buy stocks" but it is always a good time to buy "stock".

There were a number of stocks that made substantial gains today. All of the indices increased and 7 out of the 9 spydrs also improved (energy and utilities being the exception).

Most of us (me especially) really suck at calling the bottoms but I'm pretty good at recognizing a stock that might go up a buck or so after it has bottomed and started back up.

I can't help but notice that the SPY is only 12 points away from its all time high and the DIA has been making new all time highs almost daily for months. Only the Q's are lagging but - who cares. During the past 30 months or so we have been in an obvious (but weak) bull market without tech so why can't it continue? Besides - who cares - ORCL posts a massive number yesterday gets a bump today and there it sits and will probably sit right there until its next earnings announcement. I.E. - who cares - tech stocks are commodities and servers and networks are a dime a dozen - literally. We've had bull markets without tech for years and years it will happen again.

During the run up in oil during the spring it was noted widely that the buying was mostly speculation and isn't what is happening what usually happens with speculation? A crash. Same thing is going on with gold and other precious metals.

I kind of figured that the game was over for both gold and oil when they didn't go parabolic after the most recent Iran/Iraq/Israil/ Hezbollah/al-Quada crisis.

So when is it a good time to buy stocks? Today was a good day but you had to play early. After 11 or so volatility dried up and even the expected Fed announcement couldn't shake things up. Still 4449 stocks finished above yesterday's close and that is 57% on the up/down ratio scale. 1039 made new 20 day highs which is 600 more than Tuesday and 371 made new 20 day lows which is 4 more than Tuesday.

The VIX moved back into warning territory (5% below 10 day MA) and the three sisters all finished with doji candlesticks. Doji as readers of this blog know (thanks Mom) are a resting indicator. But I think we should have a down day tomorrow and Friday.

The amazing magic coin is 9 and 2 because it was definitely a bull market today and for tomorrow the coin sees ... tails - bear market. We agree again.

I replaced my position in JBLU with one in DTV. I think it has a little run left from the one it began Friday. I'll probably hold this for a couple of days regardless of tomorrow's action and see what happens. Here's the chart - see if you can spot the bottom.

1 comment:

DAVID said...

M- All time high on SPY is in the 1,500's we havent come close- also NDX high is over 5k and we are 60% away from there- but I did link your site