Saturday, September 02, 2006


I'm a little late but was busy yesterday. Let's get the targets out of the way first - three up and two down. That is turning out to be a useless piece of information and I'm going to discontinue it. I took a trade in CHKP that I closed for a small profit because I wanted to be flat at noon and I was. I also had OVTI that made a bit more and actually made my target for the day by noon.

There was an interesting piece of historical data that suggested that every day-before- Labor Day weekend would be bullish in nature and Friday was no exception. We'll have to remember that for next year - can hardly wait.

I, as usual, was wrong about direction again and I am hoping that you remember rule 1 - nobody knows nothing including me. I'll keep making my case for the next day but my batting average is mighty poor and I might as well just guess. So here is what I'm gong to do. I'm going to present my "science" and my "prediction" then I'm going to flip a coin and if it's heads I'm calling the next day as up and if tails then it will be down.

First the science - the three sisters are all red which suggests a down day the next day but has not worked lately. In fact it hasn't worked 9 out of the last 10 days - in fact it seems to be a contrary indicator. I.e. last hour down - next day closes up - we'll watch this for awhile.

The Up/down ratio is 55% which suggests a weak Tuesday (note the careful choice of weasel words - weak). The VIX remains neutral which is perfect for what has been happening and the new 20 day high/low numbers are 1058 to 106. Still not a whole bunch out there to buy at least not with much confidence for a day trader.

Coin flip says - Heads! Going to be a bull's day on Tuesday.

We'll see.

No comments: