Tuesday, September 05, 2006

More Bear Talk

My reader wanted to know if the market was going to go down this Fall.

Yes, Mom, someday the market is going to go down. Sooner or later it will get tired and the tide will roll out. But here is an annotated chart (from StockCharts.com – a great site) that shows all of the “top” calls of the past three years. And, trust me, only a handful of those “expert opinions” have been put on the map.

Obviously the top was called in an extremely scientific and precise manner.

So the next time you hear or read about “head and shoulders” and determine that they are not talking about a shampoo – run for your life. Same with “twin tops”, RSI oversold, MACD divergence, falling on high volume and Tweezer tops. There is no doubt one or more of these gurus will “call the top” and henceforth make his or her reputation. But let's face it - when you call for a cyclical event to occur every other month or so (complete with annotated charts) – you are bound to get lucky every once in awhile.

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