Saturday, September 16, 2006

Friday Wrap-Up

Late - as usual - had some things to do - sorry.

Played AMR right out of the gate and made a nice, easy, quick score. Then replayed it later and made a nice, slow, painful loss. Even for the day but had I quit in the early going with my profit I would have been just fine. I'm developing a set of "patience" rules. I'll share them later this weekend.

An awful day all told and not just because of the loss. I have to remember not to play expiration Friday. It truly is a low volatile crappy day all around. The SPY actually tells the story with greatest clarity - where the DIA and Q's both gapped open and stayed up most of the day the SPY opened up and immediately closed below the previous day's close. For all three sisters it was a roller coaster from there but mostly sideways down. All three ended the last hour in the red. Here's how the SPY looked on the 4-minutes - the others had a similar pattern.

The up/down ratio stands at 50% which suggests that some stocks caught a bid off of Thursday's performance and the new 20 day high vs low prints 873 to 332 or not much change. The VIX continues to recede towards its 10-day average however which suggests that the fear is leaving the market regardless of the internals.

They say (the ubiquitous "They") that the week after September expiration is generally a downer. In 4 of the last 5 years "they" were correct. Who am I to say "they" are dumber that the dumbest dog on the darkest night? Nobody that's who. So let's "go with the flow" and see what happens. I think we are in for a small correction. We'll see.

The magic coin is 6 for 2 (I'll give him Friday even though it was so flat) and for Monday he says ... heads - bull market coming.

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