Lost Wendy

I thought I could hold onto WEN but the stop loss is king and she hit it this morning taking her out. Looking at the 30 day chart all I saw was a dead money indicator (despite what the pivot model showed) - so that's the way of that.



You can see the dead money indicator on Thursday and Friday - if she breaks out again I'll buy her again but until then adios MF.

The other thing to notice on this chart is the fact that the "W" is completing and now it looks like the down leg of the "M" might be forming. For trending stocks - before they change direction they usually stop.

Trading Portfolio

In my trading portfolio I have 4 holdings - OI, WEN, GGB, and STD. Here are the pivot point models for each of them -

OI -



WEN -



GGB-


STD -



I see nothing in this picture that suggests that I should off load any of them from the portfolio at this time.

Wrapping Friday

A good day to miss - my trading portfolio increased in value and the model portfolio increased in value but the benchmark stayed the same. We'll get to the numbers in a bit. According to the radio this was the best week for the DJI in over 4 years. Can a crash be far behind?

I added to OI before I left after it bounced off the pivot point and then it went all the way to R2 before it rested for the day. WEN is becoming a real disappointment and I think I'll have to drop her on Monday. I'll find something else to fill the void this weekend. STD went down 16 cents at the open and pretty much sat there the rest of the day. GGB took a run up to R1, reversed back to pivot point and then closed at R1.

MSFT and AAPL flat lined all day but GOOG sparked a bit in the last hour - don't know what that was all about.

This guy remains overbought but it is slowing down on the advance - you can see that from the bars - yesterday was 0.0251 and today was only 0.0254 - I think it is getting ready to turn - and I think we have a down week overall next week.


The model portfolio is printing 7.14% and the benchmark is at 2.14.

The VIX is drawing back even more towards 10% under the 10-period moving average, the INDU ATR is 129.66 or down a bit more today which is good, and the up/down ratio is 50% or as neutral as you can get.

I'm forecasting Monday as a down day.

Meanwhile, the coin having got it part right again calls Monday ... heads - up day.

Today was yet one more tie - and this is amazing - so that makes the score Marlyn 22 - 18 and 8 and the coin is 22 - 18 and 8. I'll be back this weekend with some more wit and wisdom or at least a few more posts about life, the market, and making money.

Wrappin' Thursday

Boring - I added WEN and OI to the trading portfolio, bulked up STD and added some more to GGB (The amount I would have played on AKS had I added it). That add was at the end of the day. Kicked KNOT out of the portfolio for a nice little loss and I still don't know why the relentless selling continues. WEN actually turned around and went up 20 cents after I bought it. OI was up all day also 20 cents over my purchase price. Given the kind of day it was that seemed to me to be a success.

We didn't even go down - we went sideways - but the INDU Average True Range declined a bit to 133.66 and that is always good. What we are looking for is a steady decline with a steady rise in prices - nothing too violent because the slower it goes up the longer it lasts. Take what you will out of that - I've taken it as far as I'm going to go.

The model portfolio is at 6.74% and the benchmark is 2.03% - the model dropped .11% and the benchmark didn't move.

GOOG was back in play today - did a lovely return to 4, bounced off its pivot point and went past R1 on a lot of nice little moves. It even bounced off midpoint high along the way - if you can chart pivot points take a look at a classic on the 15-minute charts. MSFT took the day off and AAPL gained 8 cents - still a long way to go to get to 100 and it gets longer if its going to do it 8 cents at a clip.

I wish I could tell you that tomorrow was going to be better but I just don't see it - next week however should produce some nice gains again. It's the last week in the quarter and the 12000 funds have to get spiffy so the managers can get their quarterly bonuses - vacation time is coming.

The VIX is coming back to the line - 16% under today. Another day and it will probably make it back over the 10-period moving average. This guy remains overbought but we've been here before -



The up/down ratio is finally breathing a little easier at 45% which is a serious drop from the 70% where it was yesterday. If we could just get a turnaround on the NewMoMo for a day or two we might even set up nice for the end of next week.

I have to follow my instincts and the momentum chart and call tomorrow a down day.

The coin however is calling tomorrow ... heads - up again - once the coin gets an idea in its head its hard to shake it.

We have to call today another tie neither up nor down so the score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 17 and 7 and the coin is 22 - 18 and 7.

Some For Thursday

First things first - one of my selections from this morning WEN - well right after I posted that it was dropping like a rock it turned from rock to rocket - I didn't pick up on it however (damn head cold) so I missed a good entry. I'm hoping for a pull back tomorrow and I'll go in then.


The entry point was that crossover at 11:15 = that would have got you in at 31.30 or so and with it finishing at 32.13 that wouldn't have been a bad day trade even. That's the third time this week I pulled a chart down and didn't go back to look and missed a good trade.

Two others that I will be entering tomorrow is OI from the breakout filter -


And my old friend AKS which is also looking like it is finally breaking out.


As I said I'm hoping for a pull back tomorrow on these three so I can gain a little more coin on them.

That really speculative stock that I mentioned, ALTH didn't do anything but I really don't expect it to - it's just a spec play and I'm not in it yet.

Missing The Boat

I better get over whatever this is that is fuzzing up my head - miserable spring colds are the absolute worst - here is what I missed already today

IMCL - From the breakout filter


AFFX - Ditto


MRX - A gap-up return to 4 bounce off pivot point


Meanwhile my two touts of the morning WEN and ALTH are both making like bombs and dropping.

NSM my overnight trade also gapped up this morning but only 6 cents worth - then it dropped back to the pivot where I doubled up and now it is flying. I love BOB (in a purely heterosexual kind of way - of course).

MVL did a reverse crossover (red candle over EMA 21 - 4) and I dumped it immediately. I'm still holding MPW even though it is flat right now - GGB and STD (I still think that is the worst handle a stock could have) are both up on the day. KNOT is down again but is currently showing an RSI(2) < 2 so I'll probably add. I still think this afternoon will be up after the Fed announcement.

Hey Kids - Who Wants To Go To Wendy's?

Nobody!!!

Think again - this stock is showing some leg and it may be a little mature but it could take you for a ride that you won't soon forget. (Enough - the visuals are killing me).


And here is how it looks in a different aspect -



Good old pivot point trading. I think that this stock could get back to 33.50 in a short time and I'm pretty sure I'm going to add it to my trading portfolio today.