It's actually 3 but the last two posts were both titled the same so I'll make this one 2.5 and the next one will be 3.
Now that you are totally confused here are some more breakouts from the ascending triangle formation. SYNA, CBG, TJX, NWSA. Those are the best 4 (of 7) and I will tell you that I don't like NWSA(NWS) which was number 1 so I put at number 4.
I just read about SYNA last night as one of the top favored (by funds) small cap complanies per Morningstar. And it actually doesn't have a bad looking chart except for the fact that the last time it got up here (32 and change) it collapsed. CBG has been humming along lately putting up new 52-week highs day after day. But it just broke out of a range-bound 32-34 area. TJX is also exploring new 52-week high territory, has been up here (29.5) before and collapsed. The only other thing I'll tell you is that SYNA has an earnings announcement coming on Jan 25th and their current historical to implied volatility numbers are 20 to 45. That 25 point variance means the market is expecing something in the future and that there will be some movement in this stock (I don't know how much) but it will be up or down - Gee - how helpful.
Do your own DD - and I really don't expect to be doing this every day - but I might convert my program to a weekly and start doing it on the weekends - we'll see.
Also - I hold no interest in any of these stocks and may or may not hold an interest at the end of the day.
Showing posts with label CBG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CBG. Show all posts
Friday, January 12, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Breakouts
Once again an idea woke me up and nothing would do except I jump out of bed all bright eyed and - well maybe not that enthusiastically - but at least I got up to pursue the dream. I don't know who said it first, it's been said so many times, but 98% of success is just showing up.
Anyway I've been talking about breakouts for about a week now and I finally figured out how to write the formula that permits me to filter for breakouts from an ascending triangle. Actually it was in the filtering software already and I just remembered that I had read about it in their help documentation some months ago. Regardless how we got there the filter produced some interesting results.
Of 74 completed trades in 77 days the win percentage was 68% which is not too shabby and fits in with some of my all time great producers. Actually I throw out any filter that produces less than 60%. Maybe some of those others had a better ROI but I think you can lose your capital and your will to live with too many losers in a row. So I try to stay on the right side of 2/3rds in this area. The ROI was 97% annualized (based on 100K starting capital). Also there was no price bias the filter is just as likely to produce winners at 15 dollars as 35 dollars. Net change over time tells the true story.
NET Change 1 day - .11%
4 days - 1.18
10 days - 2.22
20 days - 2.89
30 days - 4.71
Obviously this is not a short term filter. I'll give you the 5 top selections (of 11) of this filter from yesterday's close. These are in highest volume to lower volume order. Remember, as normal back testing results are based on the top stock in the pile as a function of volume. So if yesterday were in a back test only AMAT would have qualified.
AMAT
SCHW
NWSA
CA
CBG
Do your own DD. While I have no position in any of them at this time I might take a interest in any one or more of these stocks today.
I use stockfetcher.com for my filtering. It is an excellent company with a rapid response to any help request you might send their way. I get nothing from the endorsement - I just use it and like it.
Anyway I've been talking about breakouts for about a week now and I finally figured out how to write the formula that permits me to filter for breakouts from an ascending triangle. Actually it was in the filtering software already and I just remembered that I had read about it in their help documentation some months ago. Regardless how we got there the filter produced some interesting results.
Of 74 completed trades in 77 days the win percentage was 68% which is not too shabby and fits in with some of my all time great producers. Actually I throw out any filter that produces less than 60%. Maybe some of those others had a better ROI but I think you can lose your capital and your will to live with too many losers in a row. So I try to stay on the right side of 2/3rds in this area. The ROI was 97% annualized (based on 100K starting capital). Also there was no price bias the filter is just as likely to produce winners at 15 dollars as 35 dollars. Net change over time tells the true story.
NET Change 1 day - .11%
4 days - 1.18
10 days - 2.22
20 days - 2.89
30 days - 4.71
Obviously this is not a short term filter. I'll give you the 5 top selections (of 11) of this filter from yesterday's close. These are in highest volume to lower volume order. Remember, as normal back testing results are based on the top stock in the pile as a function of volume. So if yesterday were in a back test only AMAT would have qualified.
AMAT
SCHW
NWSA
CA
CBG
Do your own DD. While I have no position in any of them at this time I might take a interest in any one or more of these stocks today.
I use stockfetcher.com for my filtering. It is an excellent company with a rapid response to any help request you might send their way. I get nothing from the endorsement - I just use it and like it.
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