Swing Trade - 4

In this one I combined the SMA 200 with the SMA 20 in several variations.

If the Close is:
< 200 > 20 27871
< 200 < 20 4308

> 200 > 20 19994
> 200 < 20 12393

Again this is for 1 trade a day, no more than 4 stocks in the portfolio at any one time, and the holding (swing) period is at least 1 day but no more than 4 days.

The filter requirements are exactly the same as those in Swing Trade - 3.

The obvious winner, again, is when the close is less than the 200 period moving average and less than the 20 day moving average.

If you do decide to use exponential moving averages you are probably going to be a little bit ahead of the average trader - by this I mean the exponential should get you into the trade before the other guy and that is a good thing. It will also get you out before him too and that, sometimes, is even a better thing.

None of these posts are recommendations - do your own due dilligence. Betting, uh, playing, uh, "investing" (wink wink nudge nudge) in the stock market is not as easy as it looks. Trust me - I've got the scars to prove it.

Swing Trading - 2

As promised I looked at some shorter term averages and - wow - that's about all I can say - well I could say some other things but I'm trying to keep this family friendly - if you get my drift.

I used an EMA 21 and an MA 20 - at two different levels of severity - 5% and 8%. The backtesting script remained the same - here are the results -

< EMA 21 5% -144 8% -5721
> EMA 21 7883 855

< MA 20 804 -1067
> MA 20 10754 4676

What this is saying is that being above the short term average is a good thing and that being above the simple 20 period moving average is better than being above the exponential 21 period moving average. That, naturally, is totally different from the findings with the longer term averages.

Wow! Now I have to go and look and see what combining the long and short term averages will do for us. I can hardly wait.