Tuesday Warm Up

Well folks, everything I see this morning says going to be a consolidation (sideways) day at best. After yesterday the urge to own may turn into an urge to purge. There is no one thing - it is simply a compendium of "stuff". For example volumes in many individual shares yesterday were out of sight. Increased volume is generally a good thing, blow-out volume is a bad thing - most of yesterday's was blow-out levels coupled with the fact that many issues finished well off their highs. The exceptions (there are always exceptions) were found in the NASDAQ where many tech stocks stayed at their peaks.

Last Thursday there was some kind of mini-bottoming event that I know that I missed and I doubt that very many others saw it. The TICK hit a major low in the 1:30 - 3:30 period and after that the market just sort of loosened up resultint in yesterday's action. Yesterday it did it again in the 11:30 to 1:30 period and that brought the rest of the market to its knees - but not the NASDAQ. And the run up in NASDAQ stocks yesterday was broadbased - in other words most of the index participated.

Currently the FTSI 100 is coming off its highs which doesn't usually happen after a U.S. blow out and the fact is the FTSI was in the red for most of yesterday's session as well. Given that only the NASDAQ actually surged forward yesterday with everything else backing up starting in the 11:30 time frame can only mean one of two things. Either the vaunted NASDAQ tech stock leadership is starting to realize that the parade is way ahead of it and it needs to run to get to the lead or tech stocks are going to have a fire sale today.

I'm opting for door number two because the other piece of bad news of the morning is that the futures are starting to collapse. While I don't put much stock in the futures (bad pun) as a predictor when you put that fact together with the other facts it looks like a good day to sit and watch and I think that's what I'm going to do.

Update 09:00 - apparently all is forgotten - futures have turned around as has the FTSI. This, of course, has to do with the fact that the PPI indicates lower inflation so the Fed won't have to raise any more ever again.

Buy with both hands folks - you won't get another chance like this for at least 24 hours.

Economic Fears Spook Stocks

What a bunch of absolute crap - if you believe that for an instant you are as big a moron as the moron who wrote it. I know, I know they're just doing their job - but boy it would be interesting every little once in awhile to see some semblance of truth - the market is way way way oversold - it must rest.

Here is the facts jack - the reports are of times past - I.E. the bottom of the economy was months ago - we are now in the recovery - the stock market is not the economy. How many times do you have to hear that before it sinks in - the stock market is a discounting mechanism - all the news is in the market 6 months before you hear about it. So what happened six months ago - the stock market went down. Then it started to go back up again. Now it must rest because it went up so far and so fast (in anticipation of a Democratic win in the House and Senate I might add) it needs to catch its breath and take a rest. It truly is that simple - 10 or 20 days from now it will resume its progress upward again and all will be right with the world.

Morons.

Good Tuesday Morning

It looks like I got the bounce I was looking for on SAI which is good and now I can close the book on Monday with a nice profit instead of a loss. But that's not what I'm here to talk about - instead I want to talk about the value of reading BLOGs - there isn't much. Some are humorous and some are informative and some are both and manage to stay that way. I don't know what this one is but I think it might be a bit of all the above at least I hope so. I mean I'm the only one with a magic coin (that was right about today by the way) so that is something.

But I have had to cut them back again - amazing how I keep cutting back over and over again. The fact is you can read BLOGs all day long and not get anything else done and at the end of the day feel as if you accomplished something but in reality all you did was read other people's BLOGs all day long and you probably don't even have a new idea to show for the effort.

Worse yet you might even be tempted to comment on what someone has written and next thing you know you are involved in a discussion with people whom you probably wouldn't give the time of day to if you met them on the street - well maybe you would do that but you certainly wouldn't give them financial advice nor take any from them.

Even worse than that is you might get involved in a trading chat room and wind up giving buy and sell advice on individual stocks to people who don't know you from Adam's house cat and worse yet they might even take your advice - even though sometimes it is pretty good you must always remember the first rule - nay I say unto you the PRIME DIRECTIVE - nobody knows nothing - including me!!!!

Not that I've caused any harm - yet - and that is a powerful word "yet" so I'm quitting getting involved in other folks BLOGs while I'm still ahead. That will give me more time for my own and maybe I can keep it fun and new and current.

See you later with news of the day.

Tuesday Wrap Up

Oh boy I wish I had passed on today - but nooooo I had to play GLW (Corning Glass). I took a position and watched it drop a bit - I doubled up and watched it drop some more - I said no matter it is bottoming and will come back - well it did - but only after the specialist running the book ran my stop and about a thousand others - in the space of 3 minutes he round tripped 3 million shares taking out a whole bunch of stops including yours truly - end of the day - GLW finished in what would have been for me a profitable area. I wish I had passed but more importantly I am a fool for using a stop on a volatile stock - but GLW is not a volatile stock - today was its most volatile day in about two years. I'd say a bad word but it wouldn't help.

GLW has bottomed and tomorrow it will go to the sky - I'll be there - and this time no ill timed stop sweep will catch me out.

Tomorrow we can expect more of the same - except that earnings this evening are coming in strong and righteous and I think we might even go higher - the three sisters all finished the last hour in the green - the up/down ratio is neutral at 42% the new 20 day lows actually added to their anemic total and are up to 272 while the highs are backing down to 731. The VIX came back into neutral territory and the magic coin - 23 and 10 having picked today correctly - says for tomorrow - tails - the bear is about.

We'll see.

The Joker's Wild and the Joke's On You

Earnings season is upon us so junkvision can stop using inflation as their reasoning for the market going down and they can now use earnings. Note how a market drop of less than 1% is a one day story that is blamed on increased inflation yet inflation continues every day and the market drop is a one day story - that doesn't make sense. If inflation is the cause and inflation continues then the market should continue to go down every day until mean old inflation is brought under control. Right? Obviously not - but I'm no economist I don't even play one on TV.

Anyway those of you who follow along here (thanks Mom) know that the real reason the market behaves as it does is because the magic coin is directing it ... actually you know that when there is nothing to buy people sell things and then, having sold, they look around and say "oh - look at all the wonderful things to buy" and then buy them.

This is like two neighbors, you and me say, each having a yard sale and we buy each others junk every week or so and cart it into our houses. We both feel good about selling off the old stuff and getting some new stuff but stuff is stuff - if you get my drift. Then, just like in a yard sale, every once in awhile a new buyer rides through the neighborhood and throws a potful of new money into the mix and the cost of junk goes up.

So remember it isn't inflation, or earnings, or anything else anyone else says - it is the availability of junk to be bought at a price that someone else will pay that makes the market go up. And when no one will pay the price the price comes down until someone does pay and that's what makes the market go down.

And if you don't believe me - well go back to the magic coin it makes as much sense as using something inmeasurable but continuous such as inflation or one number out of a sea of numbers that are constantly changing such as earnings.