Can't fool the market - at least not the NASDAQ - watch them tech shares go down. The other thing that was going down was BGG and I should have sold it out two days ago on the hanging man on 5/11 but I didn't. Arrogant fool that I am I believed - so much for believing. I sold most of it and am keeping a handful of shares just in case it might resume the march. I still don't trust this market and I think that that we need a 4 or 5 day correction.
I added to USU on a 15-minute bar cross over at the open and I added onto AV on an S1 hit and bounce on the open. Both those trades appear to be working out.
ANO continues to do nothing and GGB is now my only steel stock and so I'm going to hang on to it for a bit. I think it is getting ready to breakout.
Other than that I think I'm done for the day so I'll see you tonight at the Wrap.
Update - I just can't get enough of it - sold off ANO because it isn't participating (have I ever mentioned that I hate cheap stocks?) for an $86 loss and bought JNPR in its place. JNPR is one of the stocks from my must buy list ("must" in the sense of when you need a quick lift). I'm planning on dumping out of AV too - but I need another 2 cents to cover the round trip commissions. I'm fairly certain I'm not going to get it today.
Update 2 - I dumped out of AV for a $40 loss - didn't get the 2 cents and in fact lost another 2 cents - decided to let it go before it got the best of me. I just couldn't believe.
Showing posts with label AV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AV. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Monday, May 14, 2007
Wrapping Monday
What a boring day. The market is waiting for the CPI data - the market already knows that there will be inflation in it so why it is waiting I don't know but that's the headline story so it's what we'll go with. Maybe there will be a CPI surprise but I doubt it - I smell inflation in the air. But if it comes in .0001% less than the expected then watch out above. To business -
I bought and sold and re-bought USU today. Once this morning and once this afternoon. I sold of AKS and I'm done with it. I'll wait for the next major pullback - I think that stock is finished. I bought (only once) ANO and even though it lost 6 cents on me I'll hold it for awhile. I managed to round out GGB to a full position and now I'm done with that one. If it doesn't continue to rise I'll sell it just as quickly as I bought it back.
There isn't much in the market any more that looks very appealing. I'm still holding BGG and AV and the latter went up today and the former didn't.
At one time today the VIX was actually more than 10% over its 10 day MA and now it is back to neutral.
The model portfolio lost 1.88 to 17.63 and the benchmark lost .21 to 7.24. The benchmark is doing a lot better in a down market than the model. That is to be expected because the model has a lot of high beta stocks in it and they will gain quickly and lose quickly too. It is not a balanced portfolio only a growth portfolio.
AAPL continues the march forward, GOOG continues the retreat, and MSFT continues to go sideways.
The INDU ATR printed 91.23 and that means that the rally will continue (after a small pause).
This guy went down some more -
and that is goodness because what it is showing is a coiling action in preparation of an explosive move up. Well I think so, anyway.
The up/down ratio printed 33% which is in the oversold territory.
As always I'll go with the up/down ratio and call tomorrow an up day.
The coin follows my lead although I don't know why and also calls for an up day.
This was one more split day - they are becoming routine and that has to mean something although what I don't know. Anyway the score stands at Marlyn 34 - 29 and 14 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 14.
See you tomorrow.
I bought and sold and re-bought USU today. Once this morning and once this afternoon. I sold of AKS and I'm done with it. I'll wait for the next major pullback - I think that stock is finished. I bought (only once) ANO and even though it lost 6 cents on me I'll hold it for awhile. I managed to round out GGB to a full position and now I'm done with that one. If it doesn't continue to rise I'll sell it just as quickly as I bought it back.
There isn't much in the market any more that looks very appealing. I'm still holding BGG and AV and the latter went up today and the former didn't.
At one time today the VIX was actually more than 10% over its 10 day MA and now it is back to neutral.
The model portfolio lost 1.88 to 17.63 and the benchmark lost .21 to 7.24. The benchmark is doing a lot better in a down market than the model. That is to be expected because the model has a lot of high beta stocks in it and they will gain quickly and lose quickly too. It is not a balanced portfolio only a growth portfolio.
AAPL continues the march forward, GOOG continues the retreat, and MSFT continues to go sideways.
The INDU ATR printed 91.23 and that means that the rally will continue (after a small pause).
This guy went down some more -
and that is goodness because what it is showing is a coiling action in preparation of an explosive move up. Well I think so, anyway.
The up/down ratio printed 33% which is in the oversold territory.
As always I'll go with the up/down ratio and call tomorrow an up day.
The coin follows my lead although I don't know why and also calls for an up day.
This was one more split day - they are becoming routine and that has to mean something although what I don't know. Anyway the score stands at Marlyn 34 - 29 and 14 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 14.
See you tomorrow.
Friday, May 11, 2007
AV - A Trading Lesson
Some readers wanted to know how I use QuoteTracker in my daily activities so given that a picture is worth a thousand words I present AV on the 15-minute charts.
I filtered AV out the other day on a new, simple minded filter called 12 to 18 and rising which is looking for stocks that fall in the 12 to 18 price range and are rising over time. It was a good trade and when I find a good trade I tend to watch them for several days afterward. As a result AV was in my queue this morning.
It opened gap down and then dropped for another 15 minutes or so. I have QuoteTracker (QT) set up to show the bar in purple when the RSI(2) is less than 2. This is a critical point and generally is followed by a rebound.
Instead of rebounding the stock price fell through Pivot Support Point 1 (green line on QT). At this point I switched to the 4-minute charts in order to catch the turn.
This shows the 2 hours that surrounded the turn - as you can see the price bounced off the S1 several times and at 10:14 printed a green stick.
The green stick signaled the time to buy the stock which I did. It then climbed up to the pivot point. If I were day trading this stock I would have sold it here - instead I wanted to swing trade it so I set my stop at 13.70 (S1) and held the trade through the close.
Going back to the first chart you can see that it rebound off of the pivot point and went back down. Then at 12:15 it printed yet another RSI(2) < 2 signal - and a cross over (light blue bar) on the next candle.
And that is how I use QT - the pivot points are extremely crucial to my trading and the ability to flag the candles when they meet certain conditions enables me to make informed trades.
I filtered AV out the other day on a new, simple minded filter called 12 to 18 and rising which is looking for stocks that fall in the 12 to 18 price range and are rising over time. It was a good trade and when I find a good trade I tend to watch them for several days afterward. As a result AV was in my queue this morning.
It opened gap down and then dropped for another 15 minutes or so. I have QuoteTracker (QT) set up to show the bar in purple when the RSI(2) is less than 2. This is a critical point and generally is followed by a rebound.
Instead of rebounding the stock price fell through Pivot Support Point 1 (green line on QT). At this point I switched to the 4-minute charts in order to catch the turn.
This shows the 2 hours that surrounded the turn - as you can see the price bounced off the S1 several times and at 10:14 printed a green stick.
The green stick signaled the time to buy the stock which I did. It then climbed up to the pivot point. If I were day trading this stock I would have sold it here - instead I wanted to swing trade it so I set my stop at 13.70 (S1) and held the trade through the close.
Going back to the first chart you can see that it rebound off of the pivot point and went back down. Then at 12:15 it printed yet another RSI(2) < 2 signal - and a cross over (light blue bar) on the next candle.
And that is how I use QT - the pivot points are extremely crucial to my trading and the ability to flag the candles when they meet certain conditions enables me to make informed trades.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Wednesday Wraps
I had a good day and I hope you did too. Kind of hard not to the way the market is flowing. The Fed announcement caused a little froth not much more than that. I was watching the Forex screens and they told me all I needed to know quickly. I.E. - the market was going to resume its climb.
I added to AKS on a pullback just before the Fed announcement. Apparently the traders liked what they heard and AKS went up again. I added to BGG twice today although I'm sure I'm just being a bit irrational but I like the stock, I like the way it goes up most of the time, and I like making money. I'm still holding KNOT but didn't add to it although if it pulls back a bit tomorrow I may then. Still holding GGB and I should have added to it at least at 10 A.M. today but I didn't - my lost opportunity. Can anyone tell me why I should have added at 10?
Everyone who said - "Cross Over!" wins. However, a careful examination of the chart suggests that the Return to 4 at 11:00 was also a good opportunity to add. It pays to watch your swing trades and to take advantage of the opportunities they provide.
I sold out my AV shares including the part I bought this morning. Made a very nice profit on the transaction - about 5% in 5 days. Is it done? I don't know but I know I am for the time being. Will I play it again? Sure it may set up nice once more - right now it appears to be a bit oversold - the RSI(2) is > 95.
If you recall AV was purchased off a silly filter that I call 12 to 18 and rising - which describes it perfectly. I was looking for some cheap stocks that might have had a bit of interest in them. AV apparently has. If I get a pullback I might get back in. Again, let's try to guess why I bought more AV this morning.
Can't fool you guys can I? How hard is this? And yes, these are the 30-minute charts - it's a good idea on Fed day to use longer term charts because the market generally is moving slowly.
I sold out the MENT shares - I should have held them for another 15 minutes and I would have made a buck or two but as it was I lost $3 including R/T commission.
How quickly the mighty fall. Here is poor DNDN - a stock I made some money on a couple of weeks ago - down 64% today because the FDA wants some more information regarding their prostate cancer drug. Why the market sees that as a major negative is beyond me but it does and now DNDN is just another bio-crappa in the crapper.
The best part - one of the anal-holes covering the stock, upon seeing it drop 64% on the open, changed his rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Isn't that amazing? Like what else are you going to do with this piece of crap now? Do you think anyone who is responsible for any kind of real money actually pays any attention to those morons? No, they don't and neither should you. Analysts still exist for one reason only - to give the Broker help in fleecing the retail trade. And you can quote me. Thank God for the Internet - the only reason I talk to my brokerage is to give 'em hell when the interface fails.
The model portfolio put another 2% on today and is printing 20.15 while the benchmark is up .35 to 7.76. Still a lot of alpha for a rookie - don't you think?
The three Amigos didn't disappoint - AAPL managed another $1.82 and GOOG got some interest and added $2.44 and MSFT, my favorite, returned another 3 cents to its loyal followers. I looked at the charts and I think AAPL has more room to run, GOOG is as range bound as Mr. Softy, and Mr. Softy is drying up and going down.
Speaking of going down - the INDU ATR broke below 80 today, printing 79.24 at the close. I've said over and over that a break below 80 could mean a couple of soft days ahead so don't be surprised if we see the market dropping a bit starting tomorrow or Friday. Usually it just goes down to the 21 EMA which is about 300 points away right now. That wouldn't be too bad.
The VIX remained neutral and the up/down ratio hit 56% which is also neutral. The NewMoMo is also in neutral but it does show a down slope.
I'm calling tomorrow down just because it has to go down eventually.
The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - also down.
We both hit it again today so the score is now Marlyn 31 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 35 - 25 and 13.
I added to AKS on a pullback just before the Fed announcement. Apparently the traders liked what they heard and AKS went up again. I added to BGG twice today although I'm sure I'm just being a bit irrational but I like the stock, I like the way it goes up most of the time, and I like making money. I'm still holding KNOT but didn't add to it although if it pulls back a bit tomorrow I may then. Still holding GGB and I should have added to it at least at 10 A.M. today but I didn't - my lost opportunity. Can anyone tell me why I should have added at 10?
Everyone who said - "Cross Over!" wins. However, a careful examination of the chart suggests that the Return to 4 at 11:00 was also a good opportunity to add. It pays to watch your swing trades and to take advantage of the opportunities they provide.
I sold out my AV shares including the part I bought this morning. Made a very nice profit on the transaction - about 5% in 5 days. Is it done? I don't know but I know I am for the time being. Will I play it again? Sure it may set up nice once more - right now it appears to be a bit oversold - the RSI(2) is > 95.
If you recall AV was purchased off a silly filter that I call 12 to 18 and rising - which describes it perfectly. I was looking for some cheap stocks that might have had a bit of interest in them. AV apparently has. If I get a pullback I might get back in. Again, let's try to guess why I bought more AV this morning.
Can't fool you guys can I? How hard is this? And yes, these are the 30-minute charts - it's a good idea on Fed day to use longer term charts because the market generally is moving slowly.
I sold out the MENT shares - I should have held them for another 15 minutes and I would have made a buck or two but as it was I lost $3 including R/T commission.
How quickly the mighty fall. Here is poor DNDN - a stock I made some money on a couple of weeks ago - down 64% today because the FDA wants some more information regarding their prostate cancer drug. Why the market sees that as a major negative is beyond me but it does and now DNDN is just another bio-crappa in the crapper.
The best part - one of the anal-holes covering the stock, upon seeing it drop 64% on the open, changed his rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Isn't that amazing? Like what else are you going to do with this piece of crap now? Do you think anyone who is responsible for any kind of real money actually pays any attention to those morons? No, they don't and neither should you. Analysts still exist for one reason only - to give the Broker help in fleecing the retail trade. And you can quote me. Thank God for the Internet - the only reason I talk to my brokerage is to give 'em hell when the interface fails.
The model portfolio put another 2% on today and is printing 20.15 while the benchmark is up .35 to 7.76. Still a lot of alpha for a rookie - don't you think?
The three Amigos didn't disappoint - AAPL managed another $1.82 and GOOG got some interest and added $2.44 and MSFT, my favorite, returned another 3 cents to its loyal followers. I looked at the charts and I think AAPL has more room to run, GOOG is as range bound as Mr. Softy, and Mr. Softy is drying up and going down.
Speaking of going down - the INDU ATR broke below 80 today, printing 79.24 at the close. I've said over and over that a break below 80 could mean a couple of soft days ahead so don't be surprised if we see the market dropping a bit starting tomorrow or Friday. Usually it just goes down to the 21 EMA which is about 300 points away right now. That wouldn't be too bad.
The VIX remained neutral and the up/down ratio hit 56% which is also neutral. The NewMoMo is also in neutral but it does show a down slope.
I'm calling tomorrow down just because it has to go down eventually.
The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - also down.
We both hit it again today so the score is now Marlyn 31 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 35 - 25 and 13.
Wednesday Mid Day
Waiting for the Fed to pronounce - pretty sure it will be "still concerned about inflation" as well it should be. They have the keys to that truck - just stop printing money and inflation goes away.
I'm staying busy though - added to AKS and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to BGG even though it didn't pull back and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to AV and that is turning out to be a smart move.
Bought KNOT at an introductory level - it went up right after I made the play - dropping back now so I'm not sure if I will hold it or not. It did hit R3 and I should have dropped out then if I were going to. Oh well we'll see - it still owes me some money - not a lot but enough to make it interesting.
And made a substantial play in MENT for a short-term swing trade. MENT and KNOT were both found on the close = high filter.
Good trading and here's hoping for a Fed Rally this afternoon.
I'm staying busy though - added to AKS and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to BGG even though it didn't pull back and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to AV and that is turning out to be a smart move.
Bought KNOT at an introductory level - it went up right after I made the play - dropping back now so I'm not sure if I will hold it or not. It did hit R3 and I should have dropped out then if I were going to. Oh well we'll see - it still owes me some money - not a lot but enough to make it interesting.
And made a substantial play in MENT for a short-term swing trade. MENT and KNOT were both found on the close = high filter.
Good trading and here's hoping for a Fed Rally this afternoon.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Wrapping Tuesday
It was a down day - well for most of the day anyway. The few points off the DOW INDU is nothing to be concerned with - although the bobbleheads on bubblevision will probably try to make it a crisis. Nothing goes down during 401K week. Next week - different story.
You'll have to look it up - but two days after I sell my AKS holdings it pops on a takeover report. It looks valid but you never know. I managed to get a little back (I said I'd buy it over $32) although I missed most of today's move. However, if the report is factual and 40 dollars is the bid then we should see some additional movement over the next couple of weeks.
Still holding AV, GGB, and BGG. I sold about a third of my AV for a small loss and had I held it to close of business it would have been a small profit - but I have no patience for crappy stocks. Even though it went up yesterday it is just bouncing around with no apparent trend in sight. I hate cheap stocks. Speaking of which (cheap stocks) good old CMGI took off for parts unknown (at least not since 1999) today.
BGG is becoming my new darling - I keep looking for a pullback so I can buy more but it won't so I won't. I bought that off a cross over and it has paid super dividends since. The more I look at the cross over stocks the more I like them.
The cross over is on 05/01. This is a simple enough method - just wait for a stock to open below the three primary EMA (4, 8 and 21) and close above them and take a position. Put your stop (physical or mental) below the open. It works on every time frame from minutes to months.
CMGI could have been a cross over play too -
I've published a lot of cross over charts and will put some more up later - a couple of good ones.
The three amigos had a mixed day - AAPL went up a buck and change, GOOG went down change and MSFT made 4 cents for its loyal followers. You have to be so in love with Bill Gates that you'd be willing to have his baby in order to justify your love of this stock. Why did AAPL go up today? Nobody knows including AAPL.
KNOT broke out today - why does that figure - market goes up strong - KNOT drops - market has so so day - KNOT goes up. Not enough for a cross over but enough to keep an eye on.
There is another play which is the non-cross over - this is when a stock just kind of drifts up through its averages but never with a strong up thrust. Watch out for this kind of stock because generally (again a weasel word) they just go sideways from there. They are flattening out and that is never a good situation - at least not for either a swing or day trade.
The model portfolio went up .15 to 17.79% and the benchmark lost .07 to 7.44%.
The INDU ATR is down a bit more to 85.62 - remember 80 is the key - a break of 80 low and we should get a pull back in the averages in the next couple of days.
The VIX remains neutral which is its favorite configuration and the up/down ratio printed a 40% which is also on the edge of neutral and this indicator is also neutral -
But I will say this - the last time it was like this (7 months ago) the market went down for a couple of days before it resumed its every climbing ways.
Bottom line? I don't have a clue - I think we get a good day tomorrow and then a bit of weakness through the rest of the week and maybe through the rest of the month.
The coin says heads ... calling for an up day tomorrow.
Monday was another mixed day tie so the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 13.
You'll have to look it up - but two days after I sell my AKS holdings it pops on a takeover report. It looks valid but you never know. I managed to get a little back (I said I'd buy it over $32) although I missed most of today's move. However, if the report is factual and 40 dollars is the bid then we should see some additional movement over the next couple of weeks.
Still holding AV, GGB, and BGG. I sold about a third of my AV for a small loss and had I held it to close of business it would have been a small profit - but I have no patience for crappy stocks. Even though it went up yesterday it is just bouncing around with no apparent trend in sight. I hate cheap stocks. Speaking of which (cheap stocks) good old CMGI took off for parts unknown (at least not since 1999) today.
BGG is becoming my new darling - I keep looking for a pullback so I can buy more but it won't so I won't. I bought that off a cross over and it has paid super dividends since. The more I look at the cross over stocks the more I like them.
The cross over is on 05/01. This is a simple enough method - just wait for a stock to open below the three primary EMA (4, 8 and 21) and close above them and take a position. Put your stop (physical or mental) below the open. It works on every time frame from minutes to months.
CMGI could have been a cross over play too -
I've published a lot of cross over charts and will put some more up later - a couple of good ones.
The three amigos had a mixed day - AAPL went up a buck and change, GOOG went down change and MSFT made 4 cents for its loyal followers. You have to be so in love with Bill Gates that you'd be willing to have his baby in order to justify your love of this stock. Why did AAPL go up today? Nobody knows including AAPL.
KNOT broke out today - why does that figure - market goes up strong - KNOT drops - market has so so day - KNOT goes up. Not enough for a cross over but enough to keep an eye on.
There is another play which is the non-cross over - this is when a stock just kind of drifts up through its averages but never with a strong up thrust. Watch out for this kind of stock because generally (again a weasel word) they just go sideways from there. They are flattening out and that is never a good situation - at least not for either a swing or day trade.
The model portfolio went up .15 to 17.79% and the benchmark lost .07 to 7.44%.
The INDU ATR is down a bit more to 85.62 - remember 80 is the key - a break of 80 low and we should get a pull back in the averages in the next couple of days.
The VIX remains neutral which is its favorite configuration and the up/down ratio printed a 40% which is also on the edge of neutral and this indicator is also neutral -
But I will say this - the last time it was like this (7 months ago) the market went down for a couple of days before it resumed its every climbing ways.
Bottom line? I don't have a clue - I think we get a good day tomorrow and then a bit of weakness through the rest of the week and maybe through the rest of the month.
The coin says heads ... calling for an up day tomorrow.
Monday was another mixed day tie so the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 13.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Friday Wraps
TGIF - even us retired guys like weekends.
The market was up again but that was expected – today the 401K money started coming into the market and by law it has to be invested. So by cracky they began buying overpriced crap and made it even more overpriced.
I had an uneventful day. I sold off just about everything and am about to sell off the rest. I’m still holding GGB (through earnings which turned out to be a non-event), BGG, and AV. That was a mistake – I hate cheap stocks and have to take profits on them when they present. If I don’t then I will take a loss – it always happens that way because I haven’t got the patience necessary to wait for two weeks while the stock makes a couple of cents a day. I’m always thinking about the money that I could be making whenever I’m trapped in a crappy trade. Live and learn. Anyway I'll be out of town on Monday so AV has one more day to cause me grief but it is either up Tuesday morning or gone.
AKS was behaving as many stocks do post earnings – they go up for a couple of days, hit a ceiling and then start collapsing back on themselves. Watch your stocks when they go through earnings and see if this doesn’t happen. I’ll probably buy it back again the next time the market goes down a bit. If that ever happens again someone wake me up. I'll buy it back again when it closes over 32.00.
It's still a good company with a lot of room to run.
HST turned out to be a disappointment. It just rolled over and blew away. I didn’t like the action so I put the stop up tight under a pivot point and it managed to hit it. I don’t know if it will recover next week or not. I’ll watch it and if it does I'll take another shot.
The model portfolio went up .47% to 16.59% and the benchmark also went up by .38 to 7.50%. The model is still ahead and will probably stay there although I think it will need some maintenance on the next market drop.
The three Amigos are still not really participating in the rally – the MSFT-buys-YHOO story kind of blew the wind out of GOOG’s sails although why I don’t know – do you think the GOOG ownership is getting antsy? I do. MSFT went back down into its range bound muck and AAPL made 40 cents or so. YHOO was up strong and then faded away. Jimmy Crack Corn Pone had a story about YHOO today but he's so full of crap it's sad.
The INDU ATR fell to 87.98 today and that is goodness. We desperately need a correction, everyone knows it but everyone is afraid to stop buying for fear an already oversold stock will become more oversold and they won’t have it in the corral. And when I say everyone I’m not talking about the handful of retail traders – I’m talking about the big guns out there.
The VIX remains in neutral relative to its 10-period MA and the up/down ratio printed 53.40%. That’s neutral too. The NewMoMo remains orbiting 0 and that is also a neutral position.
For Monday I’m looking at another dry day like today – up but not by much.
The coin says tails – calling for a down day on Monday.
We both got another one right and the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 12.
I'll be back over the weekend with some more posts regarding BOB - I'll show you a couple of charts.
The market was up again but that was expected – today the 401K money started coming into the market and by law it has to be invested. So by cracky they began buying overpriced crap and made it even more overpriced.
I had an uneventful day. I sold off just about everything and am about to sell off the rest. I’m still holding GGB (through earnings which turned out to be a non-event), BGG, and AV. That was a mistake – I hate cheap stocks and have to take profits on them when they present. If I don’t then I will take a loss – it always happens that way because I haven’t got the patience necessary to wait for two weeks while the stock makes a couple of cents a day. I’m always thinking about the money that I could be making whenever I’m trapped in a crappy trade. Live and learn. Anyway I'll be out of town on Monday so AV has one more day to cause me grief but it is either up Tuesday morning or gone.
AKS was behaving as many stocks do post earnings – they go up for a couple of days, hit a ceiling and then start collapsing back on themselves. Watch your stocks when they go through earnings and see if this doesn’t happen. I’ll probably buy it back again the next time the market goes down a bit. If that ever happens again someone wake me up. I'll buy it back again when it closes over 32.00.
It's still a good company with a lot of room to run.
HST turned out to be a disappointment. It just rolled over and blew away. I didn’t like the action so I put the stop up tight under a pivot point and it managed to hit it. I don’t know if it will recover next week or not. I’ll watch it and if it does I'll take another shot.
The model portfolio went up .47% to 16.59% and the benchmark also went up by .38 to 7.50%. The model is still ahead and will probably stay there although I think it will need some maintenance on the next market drop.
The three Amigos are still not really participating in the rally – the MSFT-buys-YHOO story kind of blew the wind out of GOOG’s sails although why I don’t know – do you think the GOOG ownership is getting antsy? I do. MSFT went back down into its range bound muck and AAPL made 40 cents or so. YHOO was up strong and then faded away. Jimmy Crack Corn Pone had a story about YHOO today but he's so full of crap it's sad.
The INDU ATR fell to 87.98 today and that is goodness. We desperately need a correction, everyone knows it but everyone is afraid to stop buying for fear an already oversold stock will become more oversold and they won’t have it in the corral. And when I say everyone I’m not talking about the handful of retail traders – I’m talking about the big guns out there.
The VIX remains in neutral relative to its 10-period MA and the up/down ratio printed 53.40%. That’s neutral too. The NewMoMo remains orbiting 0 and that is also a neutral position.
For Monday I’m looking at another dry day like today – up but not by much.
The coin says tails – calling for a down day on Monday.
We both got another one right and the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 12.
I'll be back over the weekend with some more posts regarding BOB - I'll show you a couple of charts.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Wrapping Thursday
I don't know where all the liquidity is coming from - it's a day or two too early for the 401K money which usually takes 3 days from the 1st of the month to make the transition (even in the digital age). So I haven't got a clue. Normally I would expect a couple of breather days and then a few boom days but this is somewhat ridiculous. Oh well, whatever - I'm taking advantage of it as you should be and let the devil take the hindmost. Once again - take what the market gives you and don't fight the tape neither up nor down.
I'm still holding a position in AKS, BGG, and GBB. I'm also holding HST and AV. The only one that was a disappointment today was HST but I expect that one to get back on track during the next week or so. Once the 401K money starts coming into the market the funds will start buying it back as it is one of the beloved stocks. How do I know that? - Simple - I just look at how much the 'toot's held in the last quarter and that was 98.8% of the float - that means that they sold a ton of it off when the earnings announcement came out several days ago and now they are in the process of buying it back again. That's how the game is played - supply and demand - good stocks are always in demand and the supply is always small.
The model portfolio went up .73% to 16.04% and the benchmark beat it for the first time ever by going up .81% to 7.09% - go benchmark - The model portfolio still has a bunch of alpha.
The three amigos were all over the map - GOOG made 7+ bucks today and MSFT made another 30 cents or so. Truth be known - if I could bank on MSFT making 30 cents a day from now on I would own a lot of MSFT. AAPL returned all of one penny to its loyal followers - yes - that's one cent - 100 shares gets you to the dollar menu at Mickey D's you lucky dog you. They are still not participating with all of the spirit that I would expect in any kind of stock market rally so I say the rally is soft.
The VIX is still in neutral but the up/down ratio dropped to 53.98% which it can do even in an up market - in other words a lot of stocks went down today even in the face of rising indices. The INDU ATR printed 98.17 and that is down a bit from yesterday but the rally will continue on that good news.
This guy remains split -
but leaning towards an up day. And even though I haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of calling tomorrow correctly - I'm still going with an up day. That's right - 401K money comes in and the market goes up.
The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.
Well we both missed again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 25 and 12.
I'm still holding a position in AKS, BGG, and GBB. I'm also holding HST and AV. The only one that was a disappointment today was HST but I expect that one to get back on track during the next week or so. Once the 401K money starts coming into the market the funds will start buying it back as it is one of the beloved stocks. How do I know that? - Simple - I just look at how much the 'toot's held in the last quarter and that was 98.8% of the float - that means that they sold a ton of it off when the earnings announcement came out several days ago and now they are in the process of buying it back again. That's how the game is played - supply and demand - good stocks are always in demand and the supply is always small.
The model portfolio went up .73% to 16.04% and the benchmark beat it for the first time ever by going up .81% to 7.09% - go benchmark - The model portfolio still has a bunch of alpha.
The three amigos were all over the map - GOOG made 7+ bucks today and MSFT made another 30 cents or so. Truth be known - if I could bank on MSFT making 30 cents a day from now on I would own a lot of MSFT. AAPL returned all of one penny to its loyal followers - yes - that's one cent - 100 shares gets you to the dollar menu at Mickey D's you lucky dog you. They are still not participating with all of the spirit that I would expect in any kind of stock market rally so I say the rally is soft.
The VIX is still in neutral but the up/down ratio dropped to 53.98% which it can do even in an up market - in other words a lot of stocks went down today even in the face of rising indices. The INDU ATR printed 98.17 and that is down a bit from yesterday but the rally will continue on that good news.
This guy remains split -
but leaning towards an up day. And even though I haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of calling tomorrow correctly - I'm still going with an up day. That's right - 401K money comes in and the market goes up.
The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.
Well we both missed again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 25 and 12.
Thursday Morning
There is nothing more disheartening than watching one of your favorite holdings put 60 cents on right off the bat then give up over half of that in the next 15 minutes. I can not figure out why that happens. No matter - I added to AKS anyway on the pullback and now it looks like it is going to try to reclaim the lost ground.
I put HST into the portfolio - one of the stocks that I mentioned in an earlier post. and I will be adding AV in a little while. Both of these for swing trading.
Looks like we might have a reasonable day after all - I don't know why a reduction in the number of unemployment claims means anything other than people just giving up but apparently the market loves it even though full employment will require the Fed to raise interest rates - go figure.
Have a good day - see you all later in the Wrap.
I put HST into the portfolio - one of the stocks that I mentioned in an earlier post. and I will be adding AV in a little while. Both of these for swing trading.
Looks like we might have a reasonable day after all - I don't know why a reduction in the number of unemployment claims means anything other than people just giving up but apparently the market loves it even though full employment will require the Fed to raise interest rates - go figure.
Have a good day - see you all later in the Wrap.
Thursday Pre-Market
The Yahoo Finance site is calling for a "soft" day and up until a little while ago I might have agreed. But now the futures are up and so is Europe so I don't know. I think it might be a quiet day.
The trouble with a day like yesterday is that it always throws off a ton of good looking prospects.
I looked at a couple of charts and these might be some to put on a watch list and if you see any reason to buy them in the next day or so they might turn out to be good swing trades -
Then I think I'm going to take a swing trade in AV - looking for a bit of a pull back today to start the position and I'm also hoping for a pull back in BGG so I can add to the position.
Good trading all.
The trouble with a day like yesterday is that it always throws off a ton of good looking prospects.
I looked at a couple of charts and these might be some to put on a watch list and if you see any reason to buy them in the next day or so they might turn out to be good swing trades -
NUAN (reports on 5/8)
SIRF (reported Apr 19th guided lower)
HST (reported in Apr - market overreacted)
TZIX (reported on 4/30 guided lower might be ready to recover)
KBR (reports on the 4th - a cross over candidate)
Then I think I'm going to take a swing trade in AV - looking for a bit of a pull back today to start the position and I'm also hoping for a pull back in BGG so I can add to the position.
Good trading all.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Wednesday Morning
Don't like the market - wait a day. Today will probably be a reverse of yesterday - boom up in the morning - hit the ceiling - drift into the close.
I added to AKS and started a new position at the open (swing trade) in BGG off a cross over filter. So far I am pretty pleased. I also put a day trade in on AV (a cheap stock). I am not pleased with that one but at least it is going in the right direction.
I'd like to see the Q's break through R1 (where they are right now) and go up to R2. It could happen even with all of the indicators showing neutral. Today is one of the buying days on the week so maybe we will have a better day than I expect.
Good trading all.
I added to AKS and started a new position at the open (swing trade) in BGG off a cross over filter. So far I am pretty pleased. I also put a day trade in on AV (a cheap stock). I am not pleased with that one but at least it is going in the right direction.
I'd like to see the Q's break through R1 (where they are right now) and go up to R2. It could happen even with all of the indicators showing neutral. Today is one of the buying days on the week so maybe we will have a better day than I expect.
Good trading all.
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