But I said "We are going to have a boomer tomorrow or a crash - I'll go with an up day."
That was after I said that the INDU ATR had slipped below 80 again. Now there was no reason for that to happen unless ...
Oh well - the first thing I saw as TLB drop to 20.24 from 25.90. I instantly tried to buy every share available - but - guess what - nobody was really selling at that price so now we have a false spike in the data and that just screws up the charting.
But I did double up on LQDT and am already showing profit there. The market is settling and even coming back - the Q's are already 27 cents higher than the low of the day and going up.
My worst holding right now is WIT and I'm probably going to dump that one later today if it doesn't recover some.
I said we needed a nice blow off and with any luck plus some perseverance on the part of the bears this might be it.
LQDT just flashed green after being down 90 cents. (10:17).
What a day its going to be - a lot of opportunity for the day traders and not on the short side - everything is so overblown it's cherry pickin' time.
Showing posts with label TLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TLB. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
Wrapping Monday
I did well today - I got rid of all of my dead wood including TLB on its initial pop. LQDT went up for as much an unknown a reason as it went down the other day and I bought back TLB, CRI, and WLT. Kept WIT that I bought this morning and doubled up on it this afternoon. It didn't go anywhere today but I'm thinking that is because the market didn't go anywhere either and tomorrow will be an up day. Unless ...
Let's parse that headline - the market went down because the market participants are afraid that the market is going to go down.
It's a shame that America has lost its ability to have a laugh without a lot of foul language or sexual innuendo because that. is. hilarious.
What else did we learn today? The Tres Amigo were down some, down a bit and up a little. GOOG was down some and that makes sense since I think the shine is off that apple - AAPL on the other hand only dropped a bit and MSFT finished the day with an unexpected gain. I don't know how anyone can invest in MSFT these days - talk about a company that is used up. They are probably going to stay in this range for the rest of their existence - and if you don't think that is possible - trust me it is. The only way Gates or whomever is going to change that is with a massive share buy back and that is probably not going to happen. And even if it did it would only move them to another range where they will be locked.
MSFT is a commodity and it will trade like a commodity with the only problem being it will never be in short supply like a real commodity so it will never go up as a result of demand. There is absolutely no product that MSFT can come up with short of a cure for AIDS or Black Lung that will get them any momentum. And I'm not talking about the odd buck and a half here and there I'm talking about the kind of stooch that makes something like this happen -
Another Seattle firm - well - formerly of Seattle. ("stooch" is an old New York word that means whatever you want it to mean that is big and hairy with cajones that drag along the ground when it moves. I'm not even sure what language it comes from).
The best thing that can happen to MSFT is a correction that takes it back down into the teens so it can come back up to 30 again.
Anyone catch the HPQ and DGX action - today would have been the day to back up the truck and do the triple buy. Of course you could have done that on FRO at 2 P.M. and made some before close. I shouldn't pick on Jimmy Crack Corn Pone - there are like 800 web sites out there that specialize in it but I'm still waiting for that GOOG short squeeze - and I'm not kidding - One would think that GOOG would be shorted to a how d'ya do but it would only take 1 day to cover. Contrast that with TRLG which would take 16 days to cover - absolutely nobody expects that one to go up. FRO also has a heavy short interest (9 days) so who knows.
WIT is an Indian company and I saw this headline under its summary on YHOO finance. I'm not sure what people expected - once labor becomes educated enough to be able to use the internet they find out how cheap they are and guess what - they don't stay cheap. Apparently they don't have enough IT workers in India so they're outsourcing the work to the United States to meet their contracts. Kids - you can't make this stuff up.
SSCC shot up out of the gate and then dropped back into a dull sideways move and I couldn't find a reason to buy it.
The up/down ratio stayed the same as the other day at 41%, the VIX is over 5% away from its 10-day moving average, the INDU ATR slipped back below 80 and the INDU RSI is below 5. And this indicator is massively oversold
We are going to have a boomer tomorrow or a crash - I'll go with an up day.
Meanwhile, the coin sat quietly by all day today waiting for its magic moment and the coin says ... heads - up day tomorrow.
The coin won today's race and the score is Marlyn 15 - 11 and 5 and the coin is 12 - 14 and 5.
Dow Finishes Down 15 at 12,632, Nasdaq Finishes Down 11 at 2,505 on Market Correction Concerns
Let's parse that headline - the market went down because the market participants are afraid that the market is going to go down.
It's a shame that America has lost its ability to have a laugh without a lot of foul language or sexual innuendo because that. is. hilarious.
What else did we learn today? The Tres Amigo were down some, down a bit and up a little. GOOG was down some and that makes sense since I think the shine is off that apple - AAPL on the other hand only dropped a bit and MSFT finished the day with an unexpected gain. I don't know how anyone can invest in MSFT these days - talk about a company that is used up. They are probably going to stay in this range for the rest of their existence - and if you don't think that is possible - trust me it is. The only way Gates or whomever is going to change that is with a massive share buy back and that is probably not going to happen. And even if it did it would only move them to another range where they will be locked.
MSFT is a commodity and it will trade like a commodity with the only problem being it will never be in short supply like a real commodity so it will never go up as a result of demand. There is absolutely no product that MSFT can come up with short of a cure for AIDS or Black Lung that will get them any momentum. And I'm not talking about the odd buck and a half here and there I'm talking about the kind of stooch that makes something like this happen -
Another Seattle firm - well - formerly of Seattle. ("stooch" is an old New York word that means whatever you want it to mean that is big and hairy with cajones that drag along the ground when it moves. I'm not even sure what language it comes from).
The best thing that can happen to MSFT is a correction that takes it back down into the teens so it can come back up to 30 again.
Anyone catch the HPQ and DGX action - today would have been the day to back up the truck and do the triple buy. Of course you could have done that on FRO at 2 P.M. and made some before close. I shouldn't pick on Jimmy Crack Corn Pone - there are like 800 web sites out there that specialize in it but I'm still waiting for that GOOG short squeeze - and I'm not kidding - One would think that GOOG would be shorted to a how d'ya do but it would only take 1 day to cover. Contrast that with TRLG which would take 16 days to cover - absolutely nobody expects that one to go up. FRO also has a heavy short interest (9 days) so who knows.
Cost Of Talent Skyrockets In India
WIT is an Indian company and I saw this headline under its summary on YHOO finance. I'm not sure what people expected - once labor becomes educated enough to be able to use the internet they find out how cheap they are and guess what - they don't stay cheap. Apparently they don't have enough IT workers in India so they're outsourcing the work to the United States to meet their contracts. Kids - you can't make this stuff up.
SSCC shot up out of the gate and then dropped back into a dull sideways move and I couldn't find a reason to buy it.
The up/down ratio stayed the same as the other day at 41%, the VIX is over 5% away from its 10-day moving average, the INDU ATR slipped back below 80 and the INDU RSI is below 5. And this indicator is massively oversold
We are going to have a boomer tomorrow or a crash - I'll go with an up day.
Meanwhile, the coin sat quietly by all day today waiting for its magic moment and the coin says ... heads - up day tomorrow.
The coin won today's race and the score is Marlyn 15 - 11 and 5 and the coin is 12 - 14 and 5.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Wrapping Friday
Excellent day - I was hoping for yet another down day and we got it. This should be it for awhile - the INDU dropped through the 21 and then came back up to sit on it - that's generally a good sign.
I'm still holding LQDT, about 21 cents down, SYNA, about 51 cents down (4 cents higher than my planned stop - if it opens down on Monday it's gone), TLB, I'll talk about this one later, TTI, today's success story, and WLT, 19 cents down.
I lost TLB to a stop early this morning but I reacquired using the 4-minute charts and tweezer bottoms - see if you can guess the four places where I reacquired this stock from this chart -
This chart is from Quote Tracker and I set up a filter that watches in real time for tweezer bottoms on the 4-minute charts. Tweezer bottoms are very efficient on the low frequency charts and I bought it each time the arrow popped up on the screen.
The three Amigos, AAPL, GOOG, and Mr. Softy dropped today and that is a good sign too. The market is desperately in need of a blow-off to get the pressure out and provide some buying opportunity. The last several days have provided that.
Bubblevision was talking about a 5 to 10% correction and you know that I don't even think in those terms - I believe that I showed you in my recession post that this market was turning up and it has a long way to go yet before we get to a 5 to 10% correction (he says - I'll probably eat those words on Monday evening but I feel good about it right now).
This indicator suggests that we have gone down far enough and will be turning around fairly soon.
And the up/down indicator says 41% which is lower than yesterday (yesterday's post contained a typo on this indicator - it actually was 49% and I typed 40%). That drop is significant even if the VIX remains neutral - stupid VIX. The best indicator - the last hour of the indices are all black/red and that is always a bullish indicator. The INDU ATR remains above 80 at 83 and change so put it all together and Monday - we are going up.
The coin says --- we are going down - well - it's a race.
Marlyn wins this leg and the score is Marlyn 15 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 11 - 14 and 5. I'm doing a lot better than luck now - and that's pretty good.
I'm still holding LQDT, about 21 cents down, SYNA, about 51 cents down (4 cents higher than my planned stop - if it opens down on Monday it's gone), TLB, I'll talk about this one later, TTI, today's success story, and WLT, 19 cents down.
I lost TLB to a stop early this morning but I reacquired using the 4-minute charts and tweezer bottoms - see if you can guess the four places where I reacquired this stock from this chart -
This chart is from Quote Tracker and I set up a filter that watches in real time for tweezer bottoms on the 4-minute charts. Tweezer bottoms are very efficient on the low frequency charts and I bought it each time the arrow popped up on the screen.
The three Amigos, AAPL, GOOG, and Mr. Softy dropped today and that is a good sign too. The market is desperately in need of a blow-off to get the pressure out and provide some buying opportunity. The last several days have provided that.
Bubblevision was talking about a 5 to 10% correction and you know that I don't even think in those terms - I believe that I showed you in my recession post that this market was turning up and it has a long way to go yet before we get to a 5 to 10% correction (he says - I'll probably eat those words on Monday evening but I feel good about it right now).
This indicator suggests that we have gone down far enough and will be turning around fairly soon.
And the up/down indicator says 41% which is lower than yesterday (yesterday's post contained a typo on this indicator - it actually was 49% and I typed 40%). That drop is significant even if the VIX remains neutral - stupid VIX. The best indicator - the last hour of the indices are all black/red and that is always a bullish indicator. The INDU ATR remains above 80 at 83 and change so put it all together and Monday - we are going up.
The coin says --- we are going down - well - it's a race.
Marlyn wins this leg and the score is Marlyn 15 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 11 - 14 and 5. I'm doing a lot better than luck now - and that's pretty good.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Thursday Wraps
Well I did it - I took a day off and didn't miss it. I said in my post this morning that I had bought SYNA, WLT, LQDT and sold half of my TLB. Of these LQDT was in the money all day and the other three just drifted. Some action late took them all up to near where they were purchased with WLT poking above break even.
I said if the market was going to be down I would buy them at the close but I didn't know at the time if I were going to be here for the close so I bought them early.
What a day - AAPL finished up 30 cents, GOOG finished where it started and MSFT made all of its millions upon millions of happy owners - 3 cents. Once again tech was up with the semis (I know - I pronounced them DOA a week ago or so) leading the way. Somehow none of that makes sense nor does it fit with the news reports regarding the glut in semis. But if the three Amigos couldn't make a score today I'm telling you something is rotten in this story and we haven't heard the end of it yet.
Of course I forecast a down day today because the various indicators that I look at pointed in that direction. And for tomorrow - I think we have one more down day into the weekend. We just aren't set yet and most of the indicators remain neutral or bearish.
The up/down ratio is close at 40% but the VIX remains neutral. The INDU ATR is at 86 which suggests that it is coming time for the market to turn. But the NewMoMo indicator hasn't broken below -.005% yet and that will be the real deal when it does. That's the direction of the momentum so one more day should do it.
Meanwhile the coin says ... heads - bull market coming tomorrow - stay tuned.
Despite the fact that tech went up the broader market went down so I'm calling it a down day - too many ties lately.
So we both got it and the score is Marlyn 14 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 11 - 13 and 5.
I said if the market was going to be down I would buy them at the close but I didn't know at the time if I were going to be here for the close so I bought them early.
What a day - AAPL finished up 30 cents, GOOG finished where it started and MSFT made all of its millions upon millions of happy owners - 3 cents. Once again tech was up with the semis (I know - I pronounced them DOA a week ago or so) leading the way. Somehow none of that makes sense nor does it fit with the news reports regarding the glut in semis. But if the three Amigos couldn't make a score today I'm telling you something is rotten in this story and we haven't heard the end of it yet.
Of course I forecast a down day today because the various indicators that I look at pointed in that direction. And for tomorrow - I think we have one more down day into the weekend. We just aren't set yet and most of the indicators remain neutral or bearish.
The up/down ratio is close at 40% but the VIX remains neutral. The INDU ATR is at 86 which suggests that it is coming time for the market to turn. But the NewMoMo indicator hasn't broken below -.005% yet and that will be the real deal when it does. That's the direction of the momentum so one more day should do it.
Meanwhile the coin says ... heads - bull market coming tomorrow - stay tuned.
Despite the fact that tech went up the broader market went down so I'm calling it a down day - too many ties lately.
So we both got it and the score is Marlyn 14 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 11 - 13 and 5.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Wrapping Wednesday
I got my rest - didn't do much but play with my new toy - Quote Tracker. I'm pretty pleased with it so far and I think that once I have it completely set-up to my way of doing things I'll be a lot happier with it.
I did manage to double up on TLB and I sold off SOFO for a small loss. I just can't stand cheap stocks - they only go one direction rapidly and that is down. I published my whine about CRI this morning, at one time it was up over 2 bucks and finished the day about 70 cents to the good. The three Amigos, GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL were all up strong today as was small cap in general. But I'm still confused with the Q's - I don't think that spike down yesterday in the last minute was real - I'm wondering what's going to happen once the settlements start coming in. Aside from the tech most of the more mundane stocks didn't do much except bounce around all day.
For tomorrow I think we stay down. Even though the up/down ratio is at 42% that still isn't low enough to make a real difference - the INDU ATR is 80.48 so it is sliding out from below the 80 barrier for the first time in several days. This is consistent with this indicator as you may recall from the chart - there is always a delayed reaction to its going under 80 and then it always pulls out a day or two ahead of the market resuming the upward direction. I wouldn't be surprised to have another 30 or 40 points down tomorrow before resuming the upward trajectory on Friday.
The NewMOMO indicator continues to suggest a down market (except for small caps)
Because the market was so solidly mixed today I'm calling it yet one more tie - and this gets more and more bizarre as we go along. The possibility of a mixed market really doesn't exist up until this year when we seem to be having one every week or so. I'm not sure what that means but I'm not sure I like it - either the market as a whole goes up or the market as a whole goes down - this part up - part down doesn't make a lot of sense. I'll discuss this in more depth in another post and I think you will agree with me.
The coin is calling for a down day tomorrow also. So that makes two of us in the universe.
The score is Marlyn 13 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 10 - 13 and 5. Too many ties.
I did manage to double up on TLB and I sold off SOFO for a small loss. I just can't stand cheap stocks - they only go one direction rapidly and that is down. I published my whine about CRI this morning, at one time it was up over 2 bucks and finished the day about 70 cents to the good. The three Amigos, GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL were all up strong today as was small cap in general. But I'm still confused with the Q's - I don't think that spike down yesterday in the last minute was real - I'm wondering what's going to happen once the settlements start coming in. Aside from the tech most of the more mundane stocks didn't do much except bounce around all day.
For tomorrow I think we stay down. Even though the up/down ratio is at 42% that still isn't low enough to make a real difference - the INDU ATR is 80.48 so it is sliding out from below the 80 barrier for the first time in several days. This is consistent with this indicator as you may recall from the chart - there is always a delayed reaction to its going under 80 and then it always pulls out a day or two ahead of the market resuming the upward direction. I wouldn't be surprised to have another 30 or 40 points down tomorrow before resuming the upward trajectory on Friday.
The NewMOMO indicator continues to suggest a down market (except for small caps)
Because the market was so solidly mixed today I'm calling it yet one more tie - and this gets more and more bizarre as we go along. The possibility of a mixed market really doesn't exist up until this year when we seem to be having one every week or so. I'm not sure what that means but I'm not sure I like it - either the market as a whole goes up or the market as a whole goes down - this part up - part down doesn't make a lot of sense. I'll discuss this in more depth in another post and I think you will agree with me.
The coin is calling for a down day tomorrow also. So that makes two of us in the universe.
The score is Marlyn 13 - 10 and 5 and the coin is 10 - 13 and 5. Too many ties.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Tuesday Wraps
As posted earlier, I bought TLB and if it sets up again tomorrow I'll double up. I'm holding it up to earnings on March 7th or until I get tired of it - whichever comes first.
I also had CORS and CRI as day trades and I almost kept CRI but then I read that I wasn't wrong about the earnings - they post tomorrow. What they did last week was give a little preview so that the market wouldn't be shocked tomorrow when they officially announce. What do I think is going to happen? Why should I care - I got my quarter out of them today. CORS too was looking good for awhile but I had bought that deliberately as a day trade off my "Day Trading with BOB" filter and I got 21 cents out of it after expenses. That filter is still proving to be a real winner when it comes to picking stocks for short term gains. It might also be good for long term gains but I don't hold them long enough to know.
I also took a position in SOFO towards the end of the day - this will be another swing trade. After watching it all day I decided I should probably just commit. I'm only going for a half a buck or three days on this one though so whichever occurs first - it's gone.
Both CAR and RDEN finished the day up and either one would have been a good counter play for a day trade once the market turned around.
I didn't expect that - in fact I was figuring on a dull, down day but for some reason or other the market turned at 10:15 or so. I'm pretty sure it wasn't Wal-mart's blowing the top off the estimate (imagine that) that caused the turn around since that was already known at market open.
Of course I really don't care why the media thinks it went up - I'm just certain that it is still overbought, the range is narrower still, and eventually we are going to have to have a little blow-off to get the pressure out of the prices. Not a crash - I never predict a crash - just a 100 point or so drop in the Dow, a couple of dozen in the NASDAQ and 10 or 12 in the SPX. That would be more than enough.
GOOG went up a couple of points, MSFT went up a couple of cents and AAPL is up a buck and a little. AAPL is still trading in that narrow range but keep a close eye on it - today could have been a breakout signal. If it opens higher and goes up tomorrow there is a possibility that it will put a couple of bucks in the pot before it is through. That'll make the AAPL fans happy.
BARE, the cosmetic company I wrote about on the weekend, the one with the massive secondary coming out - dropped to 32.88 and then recovered most of that - finishing only 85 cents down from the close Friday. Just can't keep a good company down - it will probably go to the moon tomorrow. And just because it has dropped 9 of its last 10 days doesn't mean anything other than it is just an excellent company taking a little nap. Of note - its turn-around this morning was a classic blow-off bottom so that isn't all bad. Just in case you have forgotten what that looks like - here it is again.
All together now, one more time - Weee are being FOOOOLED by RANNNNDOMMMMNESSSSS! Alright - that should satisfy the fundamental purists in the audience (although I doubt I have any of those hanging around).
I spent a lot of time today working with QuoteTracker - I'm not ready yet to report my findings. Maybe tomorrow. For now let's just say I'm of mixed feelings. The interface could be a little less cumbersome and the help panels a little more helpful - but I'm new at it and I always give a piece of software a good, rigorous test before I write the report.
For tomorrow I'd say I-dunno except I'm in a contest with that stupid magic coin - so I'm saying a down day is coming. The up/down ratio is neutral, about 52%, the VIX is neutral, and all four major indices as represented by their respective ETFs printed black/red candles in the last hour of trading, as did GS. Normally that would mean that an up day is coming but the INDU ATR is still below 80 and this indicator remains in the sell zone (.005 and above).
Sooner or later we have to have a down day - it is impossible for the market to keep going up without a breather. The fact that the Q's round tripped and closed red today suggests that there is a need for a nap. Now you do understand that the only thing that happens for me on a down day is that I get to do things with my Bride such as take day trips to museums and the like which is a good thing for a retired person to do. She puts up with my sitting here at this box day in and day out without complaint and she needs a break every now and then too.
The magic coin, having called today almost completely correct - says for tomorrow ... heads - bull is coming again.
The score now sits at Marlyn 13 - 10 and 4 and the coin is 10 - 13 and 4.
I hope you all are having as much fun as I am. And I hope you all are making money too.
I also had CORS and CRI as day trades and I almost kept CRI but then I read that I wasn't wrong about the earnings - they post tomorrow. What they did last week was give a little preview so that the market wouldn't be shocked tomorrow when they officially announce. What do I think is going to happen? Why should I care - I got my quarter out of them today. CORS too was looking good for awhile but I had bought that deliberately as a day trade off my "Day Trading with BOB" filter and I got 21 cents out of it after expenses. That filter is still proving to be a real winner when it comes to picking stocks for short term gains. It might also be good for long term gains but I don't hold them long enough to know.
I also took a position in SOFO towards the end of the day - this will be another swing trade. After watching it all day I decided I should probably just commit. I'm only going for a half a buck or three days on this one though so whichever occurs first - it's gone.
Both CAR and RDEN finished the day up and either one would have been a good counter play for a day trade once the market turned around.
I didn't expect that - in fact I was figuring on a dull, down day but for some reason or other the market turned at 10:15 or so. I'm pretty sure it wasn't Wal-mart's blowing the top off the estimate (imagine that) that caused the turn around since that was already known at market open.
Of course I really don't care why the media thinks it went up - I'm just certain that it is still overbought, the range is narrower still, and eventually we are going to have to have a little blow-off to get the pressure out of the prices. Not a crash - I never predict a crash - just a 100 point or so drop in the Dow, a couple of dozen in the NASDAQ and 10 or 12 in the SPX. That would be more than enough.
GOOG went up a couple of points, MSFT went up a couple of cents and AAPL is up a buck and a little. AAPL is still trading in that narrow range but keep a close eye on it - today could have been a breakout signal. If it opens higher and goes up tomorrow there is a possibility that it will put a couple of bucks in the pot before it is through. That'll make the AAPL fans happy.
BARE, the cosmetic company I wrote about on the weekend, the one with the massive secondary coming out - dropped to 32.88 and then recovered most of that - finishing only 85 cents down from the close Friday. Just can't keep a good company down - it will probably go to the moon tomorrow. And just because it has dropped 9 of its last 10 days doesn't mean anything other than it is just an excellent company taking a little nap. Of note - its turn-around this morning was a classic blow-off bottom so that isn't all bad. Just in case you have forgotten what that looks like - here it is again.
All together now, one more time - Weee are being FOOOOLED by RANNNNDOMMMMNESSSSS! Alright - that should satisfy the fundamental purists in the audience (although I doubt I have any of those hanging around).
I spent a lot of time today working with QuoteTracker - I'm not ready yet to report my findings. Maybe tomorrow. For now let's just say I'm of mixed feelings. The interface could be a little less cumbersome and the help panels a little more helpful - but I'm new at it and I always give a piece of software a good, rigorous test before I write the report.
For tomorrow I'd say I-dunno except I'm in a contest with that stupid magic coin - so I'm saying a down day is coming. The up/down ratio is neutral, about 52%, the VIX is neutral, and all four major indices as represented by their respective ETFs printed black/red candles in the last hour of trading, as did GS. Normally that would mean that an up day is coming but the INDU ATR is still below 80 and this indicator remains in the sell zone (.005 and above).
Sooner or later we have to have a down day - it is impossible for the market to keep going up without a breather. The fact that the Q's round tripped and closed red today suggests that there is a need for a nap. Now you do understand that the only thing that happens for me on a down day is that I get to do things with my Bride such as take day trips to museums and the like which is a good thing for a retired person to do. She puts up with my sitting here at this box day in and day out without complaint and she needs a break every now and then too.
The magic coin, having called today almost completely correct - says for tomorrow ... heads - bull is coming again.
The score now sits at Marlyn 13 - 10 and 4 and the coin is 10 - 13 and 4.
I hope you all are having as much fun as I am. And I hope you all are making money too.
TLB
Bullish Jim asked me last week if you could have a blow-off bottom across days and normally I would say no if you are looking for a day trade and are using the 15 or 30-minute charts. However, if you are looking for a swing trade and you go up to the 60-minute or greater charts you almost have to look across day boundaries which is what I did this morning on TLB -
If, however, you don't want to take the trade on a BOB this trade could have just as easily been taken on the Breakout as shown. Which, coincidentally, is where I took it. It is also a cross over pattern.
I plan to hold this to just before earnings or it crashes - whichever comes first.
If, however, you don't want to take the trade on a BOB this trade could have just as easily been taken on the Breakout as shown. Which, coincidentally, is where I took it. It is also a cross over pattern.
I plan to hold this to just before earnings or it crashes - whichever comes first.
Bought TLB
Also bought a couple of others for day trades including CRI and CORS both doing well. Considering SOFO. And watching RDEN. I might wait for RDEN to break out of this range it seems to be in (22.40 - 22.80) - maybe around 23.00.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Retail - I Hate Retail
But sometimes I find a gem in the muck and when I do I want to share it.
The back story is simple - I was going through my filters looking for breakouts and I ran across CHS. There is no way that I would invest in CHS but it was a legitimate breakout so I decided to do some investigation anyway. While I was going through the competitor comparison using my not so complicated method of dividing their trailing 12 month revenues by their employee numbers I surfaced the fact that Talbots (TLB) is not only superior to CHS but significantly superior. And Talbots also broke out just the other day. And on the weekly charts TLB shows a very crisp breakout formation.
TLB also beats ANN, DDS, and FD in the competition - consequently I think TLB is a pretty good store.
Some other facts - while CHS insiders are selling everything they own - TLB insiders are mostly buying. Institutional ownership is only 45% but there they are mostly buying also. It would be very bad to buy a stock that everyone else is selling - that's how you become a bag holder.
TLB reports earnings on March 7th and given the current breakout it is possible that they will be rising into earnings and that is a good thing. Of course if you do buy them and then choose to play earnings roulette that is your choice - trust me when I say I won't be on the felt with you.
As far as I know they are not planning a secondary offering - but these things come from nowhere so that's just one of the risks. And until the Congress makes it illegal to do so we're stuck with it - and what are the odds of that? Right.
I have pretty much talked myself into taking a small piece of this action tomorrow morning. If I do it will be because of the breakout pattern, the rising into earnings, and the fact that they are number one among their competitors (using Marlyn's crazy methods - if you don't trust yourself who can you trust?).
This is not an invitation to speculate in the stock market - the stock market is a cold, scary place - and you will always do better just buying an index fund and holding it forever.
The back story is simple - I was going through my filters looking for breakouts and I ran across CHS. There is no way that I would invest in CHS but it was a legitimate breakout so I decided to do some investigation anyway. While I was going through the competitor comparison using my not so complicated method of dividing their trailing 12 month revenues by their employee numbers I surfaced the fact that Talbots (TLB) is not only superior to CHS but significantly superior. And Talbots also broke out just the other day. And on the weekly charts TLB shows a very crisp breakout formation.
TLB also beats ANN, DDS, and FD in the competition - consequently I think TLB is a pretty good store.
Some other facts - while CHS insiders are selling everything they own - TLB insiders are mostly buying. Institutional ownership is only 45% but there they are mostly buying also. It would be very bad to buy a stock that everyone else is selling - that's how you become a bag holder.
TLB reports earnings on March 7th and given the current breakout it is possible that they will be rising into earnings and that is a good thing. Of course if you do buy them and then choose to play earnings roulette that is your choice - trust me when I say I won't be on the felt with you.
As far as I know they are not planning a secondary offering - but these things come from nowhere so that's just one of the risks. And until the Congress makes it illegal to do so we're stuck with it - and what are the odds of that? Right.
I have pretty much talked myself into taking a small piece of this action tomorrow morning. If I do it will be because of the breakout pattern, the rising into earnings, and the fact that they are number one among their competitors (using Marlyn's crazy methods - if you don't trust yourself who can you trust?).
This is not an invitation to speculate in the stock market - the stock market is a cold, scary place - and you will always do better just buying an index fund and holding it forever.
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