Wednesday Wrapper

Another! Record! Day! - I've covered this in my earlier post regarding volatility so let's get to business - it's hard not to make money as long as you dump the weak ones and put good ones in their place.

I did that today - I dumped KEP after expecting it to go up on a record in Korea last night and it didn't and that's what you get for buying a stock with a 37 cent ATR. Keep that in mind when you are faced with choices in the market - if the stock looks like it is about to run - a low ATR is a good thing as long as there is a high ATR at the end of the rainbow. But it wasn't looking like it was going to run having missed a wonderful opportunity.

I replaced it with another shot at DNDN which I held this time for an overnight trade - I'm hoping to catch a jump tomorrow. The fact that it didn't participate in today's festivities doesn't leave me with much hope. I also bought JST which is a stock that Bullish Jim bought and I liked the chart so much I had to have it. About mid-day it came up with an RSI(2) < 2 right on the 15's around a support point so I jumped in. It's a nice looking stock and I think it has some room to run.

Still holding AKS and GGB although GGB is starting to disappoint. I think on Friday I'll put on a tight stop and if it hits it it's gone.

A couple I could have had but chose to ignore were PKG and NI. These would have been classic Return To 4 day trades and here are the charts -




PKG was the best of the two and it turns out it announced at 10 A.M. and made triple earnings last quarter. The country runs on packaging.

Why did I choose not to participate - to be candid I'm not feeling all that great and while I can make longer term decisions with a head cold I don't like to day trade with one.

Anyway there is an interesting feature on both of these charts that I wanted you to see and remember and that is that little doji about 5 candles in on PKG - we call that an NR7 or narrowest range in 7 bars (counting two from the day before that I didn't show - it's 6 candles in on NI). That's another one of those "buy me" indicators that day traders snap up as quick as they appear.

The other thing I wanted you to observe and remember if you can is the ATR action on these two stocks. A moment ago I said a low ATR was good if the stock appeared to be ready to run again and both of these had that look about them even though they flattened out for much of the day.

The three Amigos all made money for their loyal fans today and AAPL did the best with a two buck increase. GOOG of course, that stock where one share costs 477 dollars brought home 46 cents for its fans - $4.60 on a hundred shares won't get you a happy meal folks - kids go hungry tonight. And MSFT - what a piece of crap - 20 cents - of course that's 20 times the profit from yesterday. If given the fact that not only did the DOW break records today but both the SPX and the COMPQ went up significantly as well and between them these three megacraps couldn't scrape up enough for carfare home - I have to ask again - why in hell are you holding them? Don't answer to me - answer to yourself - I'm sure you have a good reason such as "just because" or "because I wanna" or "someday that GOOG short squeeze will happen and Marlyn you'll just look stupid! stupid! stupid!"

Of course AAPL earnings rose (after hours) and the stock is up 7 and a half putting it over the magical 100. We'll see tomorrow if it can hold it. The paltry IPOD increase doesn't appear to me to be enough and, we already knew about that for about two weeks now (read Notable Calls) so what the exuberance is all about I haven't a clue.

GRA and OI, two of my former holdings, both announce after market close tonight - GRA actually went up a buck today and OI did what its been doing lately - went sideways - usually this means that GRA made and OI missed but I don't know how with the way PKG came in this morning. If they get it out before I end the wrap I'll let you know what the outcome was.

This guy went back up again -


Which as I've noted is pretty meaningless but the INDU ATR came back in a little to 109.05. That's OK - the rally continues.

The model portfolio is up another 1.09% today to 16.71 and the benchmark went up .91% to 6.47. If I get to it tomorrow I'll print out the model portfolio, the starting and current values.

The VIX remains in neutral and that's not a surprise - no one really knows what to do right at the moment - this week is all about writing options and getting inventory back up again so I doubt it (the VIX) means anything at all.

But the up/down ratio is printing 59% and that should be enough to get us a breather tomorrow. I forecast a down day.

The coin says ... tails - also looking for a down day.

Having both hit the nail on the head the score stands at Marlyn 27 - 26 and 11 and the coin is 30 - 23 and 11.

Neither GRA nor OI have made any splash at all AH so I guess they were adequate. We'll see in the morning.

Wrapping Wednesday

Been gone so long I've almost forgotten how. As a test of my resolve and discipline during my vacation I went one full week without logging on to the internet. It is amazing how little I missed in that time. The political situation remains the same, the market remains the same, Jimmy Crack Corn Pone stays as crazy as ever and the only thing that has changed is me - I'm a week older and a bit smarter for the experience. I'm going to try it about once a quarter from now on. Can't hurt - might even help.

Oh well - just because we're retired doesn't mean we can slack off. Let's have a wrap -

I expected the markets to be down today and they were split but that isn't anything new anymore. After all there was a new record in the wind. Still you can't have the Dow components up and the tech components down - it just doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how INTC actually made money this quarter while fighting with AMD for market share and cutting share prices while the PC market that is supposedly doing so well is such absolute toast that the retailers are practically giving away desk tops as premiums to get you to come into their stores. Can you say "Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

I sold off GRA this morning because I didn't like the way it was progressing, to wit it lost a quarter in the week I was gone. The rest of the market went the other way and so I'm taking the quarter loss as a sign of concern regarding earnings which are coming up on the 24th. I also sold off OI based on its 20 cent loss in the past week and that too might be concern over earnings coming next week. At any rate I'm taking no chances this particular season. My current positions include KNOT, AKS, and GGB. I increased KNOT this morning off the S2 - it went up to pivot and then dropped back to S1 were it sat most of the day. And I added to AKS also - that might have been a mistake because it too is coming up on earnings and while GGB went up AKS fell back. I'll watch another day or so and then, if it keeps dropping I'll dump out on Friday until after earnings next week. No day trading today - I need a little time to get back my rhythm.

I see the Q's took a dump in the last half hour as did SPY and DIA. That's generally a concessionary movement and it suggests (only "suggests") a down day coming tomorrow.

The three amigos - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL continued their winsome ways - these are the three most beloved stocks in the entire world because they are so profitable. MSFT had 4 days of gains and made all of 50 cents for its true believers while it continues to meander in the range we identifed about 9 months ago. GOOG is in a rising formation and will probably hit 513 any day now and after that --- boom!--- right to 520 having touched off the world's longest awaited short squeeze. And, as was predicted here first - APPL hit 90 before it hit 100. I wouldn't load up just yet there's more bad news ahead. The only reason a stock declines into earnings is fear. If AAPL puts out a bad number next week it might lose 15% before the first 5 minutes of the trading day.

The cult of MVIS had a good week but then came yesterday and the cathedral of dead money -


so cult fans - I guess it's time to sell and wait for the next pull back.

My model portfolio is printing 13.70% which is OK but a bit disappointing and another sign of future declines (rate of change is dropping). The benchmark is at 4.89%.

The VIX pulled back into the neutral zone but what I find interesting is that the INDU ATR is now approaching 80.


I gave you a two-month view on this one so you could admire my brilliance in ATR reading. I told you that when the ATR rolled over on the INDU we would have a sustained market rise. Well that happened - and, as I've mentioned before - once the ATR drops below 80 it is a danger signal and usually precedes a multi-day correction. It is currently at 82.93. So keep an eye on it.

This guy still indicates market weakness coming -


The up/down ratio says 40% and that means only one thing - an up day tomorrow regardless of what the other indicators are saying.

The coin says ... tails - down day coming.

Going back to last Monday's forecast when the coin won the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 25 and 10 and the coin is 27 - 22 and 10. I always say that I'd rather be lucky than good.

Wrapping Monday

Pretty much as expected - I did well on DNDN managed to dump out near the top for 2.65 per share - I also learned something about Philip's Set-Up which I will share with you in a different post this evening. DNDN did 78 million shares today - I wonder how many of Jimmy Crack Corn Pone's fans were seeing red as they ran to buy shares they may have once owned at a lower basis. One good thing that has come out of this - Jimmy's pronouncement did not make the stock go down. If anything it rose a tick on the word of the almighty one. That probably means that he is losing his Mojo as well as his Bull Snot "booyah". I served active 20 years and I wouldn't use that salute today because it belongs to the active combat soldier - not some useless piece of crap stock picker who never served a day in his life.

Speaking of volume the majors all did about half today - if you've ever wondered what Europe means to us then look at the volume figures on Easter Monday. And if you've ever wondered why the market trades differently in the morning vs the afternoon - Europe is the answer.

AKS didn't treat me that well today - I just don't get that stock - it goes up and then stalls and falls. To be fair it is in uncharted territory. I still haven't decided whether I'm going to hold it through earnings or not (Apr 24). If it is still going up into the date I'll hold because I like a stock rising into earnings. If it is still in a stall pattern I'll probably dump out. It is up 20.5% since February 28th and might need a rest.

I'm holding KNOT for awhile - about 10 days - or until it hits the stop loss - whichever comes first. This stock has just gone though a tremendous sell-off for absolutely no apparent reason and it might be time to buy it. Besides it owes me a few bucks and I want them back. Once I'm even we'll undo the KNOT.

I don't know how many of you noticed that AMGN - Lenny's double down nightmare - just continued to go down again today. I wonder when, if ever, he pulls the pin. And if he does, does he tell his legions of followers that he did? Based on his strategy he already needed over 14 winners to make up for his losses through Thursday - oh well - 4 days to earnings - I hope he gets a good number.

The three amigos - MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG dropped early which followed the initial market direction but then they didn't get with the program. GOOG as you know is just so much dead opportunity and has been for at least the past 6 weeks of this particular rally. Although to be fair I could go back to the beginning of the rally in November when GOOG was selling for 510 a share and say - wow did you losers miss some wonderful opportunities. But I won't - another one of Booyah Boy's 52-star back up the truck picks - still waiting for that short squeeze - Jimmy.

MSFT stays in the narrow range as does AAPL. Don't know what anyone is waiting for on that one either. Take a look at the chart - get the crash cart - it's flatlining!

What's the longest time that an RSI(2) stays below 2? About 45 minutes or three 15-minute bars worth. That's why I like that particular tell especially when it is linked to a pivot point.

OI is just drifting - I'd like to pull the pin on that one but it too is approaching earnings (4/25) and so I'll just hang on into the number. Besides at this moment I don't have anything else to do with the money. When I talk about opportunity here is what I am talking about - here is OI an old fashioned sticks and bricks company vs GOOG a modern software company. One produces real things the other produces nothing. OI broke out of a range to 18 dollars a share in November when GOOG was selling for 470 dollars a share. Let's say you sold 100 shares of GOOG at that time and converted the proceeds to buying OI - you could have bought 2600 shares of OI at a cost of 47000 dollars. Today you could sell the 2600 shares of OI for 70000 dollars (rounded). Today, if you are still holding the 100 shares of GOOG, you can sell it for 47000 dollars. That's what opportunity cost is all about. Ah - it's your money - do as you please.

I see the cult of MVIS made 2 cents today. Back up the truck, Mavis, I want to take some a dat MVIS home. Rule 1 is always in effect and if you don't know what Rule 1 is - it's simple - Nobody Knows Nothing including me. Trust no one except yourself and only when you have a bona fide set-up to support your decision. Do not ever buy a stock because you "believe" in it.

The INDU ATR dropped a little more today to 102.16. The model portfolio printed 11.965 and the benchmark hit 2.88% both up a bit.

This guy keeps rising and I'm not sure when it is going to key a drop. Of course we had another mixed day today.


The VIX is still 5% below its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 44% or a tad on the over-sold side. Is it enough to move the market tomorrow - maybe - after all the 401K and IRA money is starting to flow in and it all has to go somewhere.

I'm calling tomorrow up.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - down.

Another tie day - the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 24 and 10 and the coin is 26 - 22 and 10. I never paid much attention to it before but it seems to me that we are having an inordinate amount of split days this year.

Wraps For Thursday

Ugh - I wasn't up to speed at all today. I don't know when this market is going to go down but this burn up is going to drive me nuts. I don't know where the liquidity is coming from to buy the stocks that are being bought but there is a lot of money all of a sudden available and a lot of stocks being grabbed up.

I added to GRA and put AKS in the trading portfolio. I took some day trades - none of which worth much. I took MVIS off a tweezer bottom this morning and cashed out 14 cents later - whoopie - I just can't bring myself to "believe". Tell me - who in their bleeding right mind can "believe" in this crap - A perfect rounder between pivot points ...


Took a shot at IAAC and that was a wild ride to a 32 cent loss. Then I had PMTC for most of the day and took 18 cents off of it. Between MVIS and PMTC I made up for my loss in IAAC except for three round trip commissions. Fortunately AKS and the added value to GRA more than adequately made up for that loss. But still it was a loss I shouldn't have taken.

I think I'm going to stop with the tech stocks all together - they're mostly junk, selling junk, or, like RACK this morning, junky crap selling junk that absolutely no one wants or needs. The one that I wanted to buy, HLYS, just got too expensive too fast and I just said no.

I wrote about three stocks this morning that I read about on from Notable Calls. PFE made 3 cents, NKTR was dead even for the day and JSDA went up 70 cents. Had I kept the latter on my screen I could have picked up a nice BOB around noon time.

Philip designed and gave me a great set-up and I'll work on it over the weekend and see if my initial take is correct - and that take is something like - wow!. Go read his comment on it under this post. I've been looking at a number of other stocks and finding this set-up in a number of them and it looks like it has a great future in the 15- and 30-minute charts. Thanks again Philip. I am always interested in exploring new set-ups.

The model portfolio lost a smidgen to 11.57% and the bench mark posted 2.77%.

The three Amigos had a booming day - the 471 dollar stock gained 50 cents, the 94 dollar stock gained 41 cents and the other piece of crap gained a nickle - all of you MSFT owners - bet you're feeling rich tonight. In one month MSFT has managed to net 23 cents. That's a one hellofa month there, Clarice. Now if we take that out to 12 months that would be $2.76 cents and that's if it keeps going up. That would mean that you could invest all of your profits in a happy meal and have a little left over for a Moon Pie and an RC cola.

The INDU ATR went up a bit again today but only cents to 104.58 and I still say it hits double digits next week and we will be clean and green until the next world monetary crisis. This guy went up some more and that is worrisome but it went up last time without going down which is one of the reasons why the market is just spinning its wheels.



The VIX once again slipped to 5% under the 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio went to neutral - 54%.

Given the fact that we need a down day but since Monday's are never down especially after three day weekends - I'm calling Monday - down.

The coin says --- tails - also calling for a down day.

I missed but the coin hit so the score is Marlyn 24 - 24 and 9 and the coin is 26 - 22 and 9. Luck is prevailing in this contest - I'm going to have to look for some new indicators.

Wednesday Wraps

Well that was a wonderful day - my key stocks in the portfolio both went up a bit, I bought and sold RI in the space of 6 hours because it round tripped and replaced it with GRA - the stock I should have bought in the first place and a week ago to boot. That was the leader on the must buy list last week and remains number one with a bullet. It gained 3.15% today - of course I bought it late so it will probably lose that and more tomorrow. I added to OI as it seems to be indicating that it wants to run. I'm already overweight in GGB and left it that way.

Took two day trades, XING and TAM. XING I took off a bounce from S1 early and rode it to R1 and made 43 cents on the transaction. Just about the time I was finishing with XING, TAM printed a tweezer bottom just above S2 and I rode that one to R1 - making a buck for the effort. I discovered XING from the BOB set-up filter and TAM came from a gap down filter. Here's TAM so you can see how the trade developed. Very elegant and note that if I had waited for a EMA cross over I would have lost half the move. The arrow is what I have the software print to indicate a tweezer bottom.


And if you don't think I like QuoteTracker - you would be very wrong.

JTX opened up as I expected it would then dropped back then finished up. The specialist didn't get the short squeeze that he expected so it is possible that there weren't that many folks short the stock. It's possible that the drop was so severe that there were very few up-ticks when the stock could be shorted and also possible there just wasn't any inventory to short. It would have been a good play around 27.50 but I had other fish to fry at that time.

I think it's finally time to buy MVIS - two strong days with significant volume suggests that the big boys have finally noticed. I'm going to watch for an entry tomorrow and maybe put some in the portfolio. That'll calm it down.

The model portfolio is up to 11.56% and the bench mark printed 2.43%. It gets easier every day. The shootout is over with my Dead Cat Bounce Filter beating the Rocket - at least in this round. I don't know if there will be a second round - If the Rocket ever outputs another stock I'll do another comparison.

The three pals - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL had a wonderful day. MSFT won the race with a 2.26% gain and that puts it at the top of its trading range again. It actually went into breakout territory but then pulled back just in time to level off with the last two highs of the past 20 days. Anyone care to guess where it goes tomorrow? My guess is back to 27.90 or so. GOOG flatened off with yesterday's gains and printed a spinner - I.E. - nobody knows what to do. AAPL, having read my critique this morning, went nowhere. Lost 23 cents. This stock has now lost 6 days out of the last 7 and is not even going anywhere as a result. It is sliding sideways. I don't know - I think there is a lot of lost liquidity in these stocks that could be used in other places to make money - but apparently the Cult of AAPLGOOGMSFT is just too powerful and knowing. Earnings are coming - here is my guess - AAPL - makes by a penny, MSFT - misses by 2 cents, GOOG - makes a profit but misses estimates. You read it here first.

The DJI ATR slipped back to 104.15 today and that is excellent - I think it will go below 100 before the end of next week. Unfortunately this guy went back up today to peek over .005% and that usually means a down market is coming -


The VIX remains neutral and the up/down ratio actually returned to an oversold - kinda - configuration - printing 46%. I told you it was an ugly day.

So we have competing up and down indications - I'm guessing tomorrow is more of the same as today with a bit of a down bias. The big guys will all take the afternoon off and only the rookies will be manning the pits. Their orders will be - do no harm.

Then Friday is a day off and Monday the 401K/IRA money starts flowing into the market.

So as not to be ambiguous myself I'm calling for a down day tomorrow - I know it is more of a wish than a reasonable guess but it's all I've got right now.

The coin is saying that tomorrow is going to be a ... heads - up day - the coin never guesses.

We both missed so the score is at Marlyn 24 - 23 and 9 and the coin is 25 - 22 and 9.

Wrapping Monday

Another boring day - everything took place in the afternoon. I think that when stocks tightrope along the pivot point it is an amazing sight. I don't know if that's because everyone who trades in bulk uses pivots or if it's just a coincidence but when you see something like this you have to wonder.


From 9:45 to 2:15 it just tiptoed along R1 then broke out for R2. I had a number of stocks that I was watching do that today.

I added ALY to the trading portfolio for a swing trade. Caught it off the BOB set-up from Friday's close. I'm looking at 50 cents either way or Thursday - whichever comes first. Don't forget this is a 4-day week - market takes Good Friday off.

I took on DESC off the dead cat bounce and watched it tiptoe along the pivot point after one mad dash up and back this morning early. It's gone tomorrow regardless.

Still holding GGB and a part load of OI. Although OI did go up to R2 today it returned to R1 and that's where it made like a tightrope walker for the rest of the day. But at least it went somewhere so it stays in the portfolio for the time being. Next round trip to 0 or negative day and it's gone.

GOOG for all of you masochists in the audience, a 452 dollar stock, made 37 cents today. APPL did a lot better coming in at 74 cents. MSFT stays range bound.

The model portfolio printed 8.12% at the end of the day and the benchmark hit 1.32% - that's a lot of alpha on my scorecard. This game is very, very easy after a meltdown - I wish we could have one a month.

In the "market must go down to go up" department we have the INDU printing a 113.84 ATR which is a 6 point drop from Friday and that's what we want - an up day with a dropping ATR - get it below 100 and we should start running for the sky again.

The "shootout" between my Dead Cat Bounce filter selection ANGO and the ROCKET's TAG goes to ANGO today - it is up .95% and TAG is down -11.45% which is 16 and 15 cents respectively. DCB is winning.

VIX remains neutral and the up/down ratio does too at 52% - there just isn't much going on. This guy refuses to drop below -.005 just like last time 11-15 days ago


If the market refuses to go down it is going to find it difficult to go up. If you think a down market is hell - wait till you experience a long range bound one.

For tomorrow, based on the heavy action for today and the fact that nothing will happen until the 401K and IRA money starts flowing in next week I'm calling for a down day. Eventually we have to lose 10 or 20 points - it's just probabilities.

The coin meanwhile wants another up day ... heads.

Having both missed today by calling for a down day the score now stands at Marlyn 24 - 21 and 9 and the coin is 24 - 21 and 9.

Thursday's Wrap

It was an up day but not by much. I expected a lot more and didn't get it although the stocks I'm in currently did well. Those are GGB and OI - AGIX was stopped out. Candidly as I said in the Dead Cat Bounce post - they are going up or they will probably stop out so set the stop close - I did and it did. I added to OI. My day trade BMR also stopped out but that was this morning.

Since I missed most of the day this will be brief this evening. I see that MSFT made a few cents today as did AAPL. I would have expected AAPL to have done better but it is still considered a "tech" stock and as such it follows the market up and down. GOOG on the other hand is an internet stock and it went down today by a few cents. That kind of describes the market thoroughly - totally random lurching around with no direction. It wants to go up and it wants to go down. Best thing to do is wait till it picks a solution to its problem and then go along with it.

The model portfolio went up to 6.91% from 6.02 and the benchmark went to 1.13%. We're going nowhere fast - I didn't make a portfolio for those stocks I isolated yesterday yet - maybe tomorrow.

The INDU ATR went back up again and that is not good - it printed 112.61 at the end of the day. We need it to continue down in order to have the market go up. Then after it gets into the 90's or so we want it to sit there and stay above 80. That would be perfect.

The VIX is now 7% over its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 51% - a lot of neutral going around all of a sudden. The New MoMo is still looking good and has transitioned to under the line but not yet at -.005% which is the target for sustained upward movement -



I'm going to forecast tomorrow as another up day.

The coin says that tomorrow will be ... heads - the coin thinks it will be up as well.

The score now stands at Marlyn 24 - 20 and 8 and the coin is 24 - 20 and 8.

Tuesday Wraps

Oh wow let me count the ways - none - now that was another boring day. Of course stocks went up and stocks went down but down was kind of the key to understanding the day.

The fund managers now have one day left to get their act together - Wednesday - because everything settles on Friday and counts in this quarter. Because of that I think tomorrow will be an up day and then we fail into April or fall into April - take your pick. Fortunately because the end of March is so weak April is setting up to be one hell of a month. But first the news -

I mentioned this morning that I lost CRVL to a stop and replaced it with MDRX based on the fact that MDRX was going up when the rest of the market was going down - and that's what happened MDRX went up and stopped and went sideways the rest of the day. Along with everything else. I added to my OI position this afternoon because that was another stock going up against the flow.

The model portfolio lost a little and sits at 7.39% which isn't too bad for 20 days. The Benchmark is at 1.70% which is awful.

GOOG caught a bid at the end of the afternoon which cut the loss a bit - MSFT didn't disappoint - at least not those of us who are calling it a "range-bound pig" (not to its face of course). From 1:30 yesterday afternoon to 4 P.M. today it went - nowhere - but round-tripped 60 cents in the effort. What a piece of crap. AAPL lost a few cents today and I still think it sees 90 again before it hits 100.

My FOREX friends - I hope you kept records on this morning's Con Con effect which was disappointing low. This should suggest some pressure on the Fed to lower rates and the various spots acted exactly as they should have if the Fed lowers rates on the buck - they became stronger against the dollar getting weaker. So now you have Con Con in your book.

The INDU ATR is way down this afternoon to 115.75 - that suggests that the exuberance for selling is waning and it's possible that it will support a boost tomorrow.

The VIX has already pulled back into the neutral zone and the up/down ratio sits at 27.86% and that is oversold to a capital "O".

This guy keeps sinking which is good -



So I'll repeat my forecast for an up day tomorrow.

The coin meanwhile, having another winner today calls tomorrow ... heads - up day also.

That makes the score Marlyn 23 - 19 and 8 and the coin is 24 - 18 and 8. The coin is all of a sudden doing better than Marlyn - imagine that.

Trading Portfolio

In my trading portfolio I have 4 holdings - OI, WEN, GGB, and STD. Here are the pivot point models for each of them -

OI -



WEN -



GGB-


STD -



I see nothing in this picture that suggests that I should off load any of them from the portfolio at this time.

Wrapping Friday

A good day to miss - my trading portfolio increased in value and the model portfolio increased in value but the benchmark stayed the same. We'll get to the numbers in a bit. According to the radio this was the best week for the DJI in over 4 years. Can a crash be far behind?

I added to OI before I left after it bounced off the pivot point and then it went all the way to R2 before it rested for the day. WEN is becoming a real disappointment and I think I'll have to drop her on Monday. I'll find something else to fill the void this weekend. STD went down 16 cents at the open and pretty much sat there the rest of the day. GGB took a run up to R1, reversed back to pivot point and then closed at R1.

MSFT and AAPL flat lined all day but GOOG sparked a bit in the last hour - don't know what that was all about.

This guy remains overbought but it is slowing down on the advance - you can see that from the bars - yesterday was 0.0251 and today was only 0.0254 - I think it is getting ready to turn - and I think we have a down week overall next week.


The model portfolio is printing 7.14% and the benchmark is at 2.14.

The VIX is drawing back even more towards 10% under the 10-period moving average, the INDU ATR is 129.66 or down a bit more today which is good, and the up/down ratio is 50% or as neutral as you can get.

I'm forecasting Monday as a down day.

Meanwhile, the coin having got it part right again calls Monday ... heads - up day.

Today was yet one more tie - and this is amazing - so that makes the score Marlyn 22 - 18 and 8 and the coin is 22 - 18 and 8. I'll be back this weekend with some more wit and wisdom or at least a few more posts about life, the market, and making money.

Wrappin' Thursday

Boring - I added WEN and OI to the trading portfolio, bulked up STD and added some more to GGB (The amount I would have played on AKS had I added it). That add was at the end of the day. Kicked KNOT out of the portfolio for a nice little loss and I still don't know why the relentless selling continues. WEN actually turned around and went up 20 cents after I bought it. OI was up all day also 20 cents over my purchase price. Given the kind of day it was that seemed to me to be a success.

We didn't even go down - we went sideways - but the INDU Average True Range declined a bit to 133.66 and that is always good. What we are looking for is a steady decline with a steady rise in prices - nothing too violent because the slower it goes up the longer it lasts. Take what you will out of that - I've taken it as far as I'm going to go.

The model portfolio is at 6.74% and the benchmark is 2.03% - the model dropped .11% and the benchmark didn't move.

GOOG was back in play today - did a lovely return to 4, bounced off its pivot point and went past R1 on a lot of nice little moves. It even bounced off midpoint high along the way - if you can chart pivot points take a look at a classic on the 15-minute charts. MSFT took the day off and AAPL gained 8 cents - still a long way to go to get to 100 and it gets longer if its going to do it 8 cents at a clip.

I wish I could tell you that tomorrow was going to be better but I just don't see it - next week however should produce some nice gains again. It's the last week in the quarter and the 12000 funds have to get spiffy so the managers can get their quarterly bonuses - vacation time is coming.

The VIX is coming back to the line - 16% under today. Another day and it will probably make it back over the 10-period moving average. This guy remains overbought but we've been here before -



The up/down ratio is finally breathing a little easier at 45% which is a serious drop from the 70% where it was yesterday. If we could just get a turnaround on the NewMoMo for a day or two we might even set up nice for the end of next week.

I have to follow my instincts and the momentum chart and call tomorrow a down day.

The coin however is calling tomorrow ... heads - up again - once the coin gets an idea in its head its hard to shake it.

We have to call today another tie neither up nor down so the score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 17 and 7 and the coin is 22 - 18 and 7.

Some For Thursday

First things first - one of my selections from this morning WEN - well right after I posted that it was dropping like a rock it turned from rock to rocket - I didn't pick up on it however (damn head cold) so I missed a good entry. I'm hoping for a pull back tomorrow and I'll go in then.


The entry point was that crossover at 11:15 = that would have got you in at 31.30 or so and with it finishing at 32.13 that wouldn't have been a bad day trade even. That's the third time this week I pulled a chart down and didn't go back to look and missed a good trade.

Two others that I will be entering tomorrow is OI from the breakout filter -


And my old friend AKS which is also looking like it is finally breaking out.


As I said I'm hoping for a pull back tomorrow on these three so I can gain a little more coin on them.

That really speculative stock that I mentioned, ALTH didn't do anything but I really don't expect it to - it's just a spec play and I'm not in it yet.