Tuesday Wraps

Another pitiful day. I made money but only because I held AKS though earnings. Of course the fact that it was booming for the past 5 days or so and announced another early pension trust fund contribution on Monday didn't hurt my cause. In fact - if you are thinking about holding a stock through earnings those are the kinds of things to look for. AKS also guided higher so I believe I can hold it without a problem for a bit longer.

GGB on the other hand, the other steel company that I am holding, acted poorly yesterday and started sliding today so I sold it off - all of it. Then I reacquired a starter amount at a lower price and took on a second portion this afternoon. I'll build it up again if it resumes the upward march but I had too much profit in it to let it drift away. It will either go up and remain in the portfolio or drop and be kicked to the curb.

DNDN didn't work out as well as I thought it might - I truly expected another one and a half to two dollar day and it stalled and crashed. I dumped out this afternoon for a small loss ($130). I also dumped out of ANR this morning for a break even (including commissions) and added to KEP. I'm not sure why I like KEP except I expect the Korean's to come back tonight and that will reflect nicely on that stock tomorrow. I'm in it until Friday at the earliest (or stop out if it drops over the next couple of days).

The INDU ATR is at 105.87 and that is rising which is OK. The rally will continue. The VIX remains in neutral and NewMoMo continues to drop.


The model portfolio gained a few today to 15.46 and the benchmark printed 5.51% which is also up a small bit.

The three Amigos reflected the psychotic nature of the day with both AAPL and GOOG dropping a bit and MSFT rewarding its legion of followers with a 1 cent gain. Now that might not be much to you or me but there are over 5 billion shares in institutional hands alone - you do the math. I don't know why those 5 billion + shares are worth one cent more today than they were worth yesterday but - whatever.

The up/down ratio is at 38% so I'm going for another up day tomorrow.

The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.

Another tie day - the score stands at Marlyn 26 - 26 and 11 and the coin is 29 - 23 and 11.

Wraps Monday

Stocks Drop on Rising Oil Prices

You betcha they did - rising oil prices and no volatility and no liquidity and nothing to buy - oh my - oh my.

Still holding AKS and GGB and one went up and the other stayed about the same. Dropped AMAT - actually it hit a very close stop that I put in place because I didn't like the action and I was correct - see I don't need to sell them - I just put my stop up under a pivot and say - this far and no further. Try it - you'll like it.

Added to ANR at the end of the day on an RSI(2) < 2 indicator which was also at a pivot point. And I put KEP in the trading portfolio for a 5 to 10 day ride (or stop out whichever comes first). KEP comes in from my new filter - LRS going up and RSI going down that I wrote about over the weekend. The other pick from that filter was TWX and I don't like Time Warner or AOL.

Day traded DNDN off a gap up, pull back, and reverse crossing formation on the 4 minute charts - I wasn't going to stay in for a buck and change but I did.


The volume increase informed the trade and the hanging man at about 1:30 said let's get out of here. In at 15.12 out at 16.79 not a bad piece of work. I used my "gap-up" filter from stockfetcher to catch it for my gap-up watch list. I like trading stocks I've traded before - I understand how the traders work with them.

The NewMoMo is reversing again (down) and that is good -


The INDU ATR is up a bit to 100.67 which suggests a continuation of the rally. The model portfolio is at 14.97% which is up a little today and the benchmark is 5.4% down a little today.

AAPL is up a couple of bucks on news (see Notable Calls) and GOOG has lost the love from last week and dropped a couple. Still don't know what anyone sees in that stock or what they are expecting from it.

Is range bound one word or two? - Oh that's right, it's one word and it's spelled MSFT.

The VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio prints 40%. This is probably enough to get the market up tomorrow but I don't know how far it will go.

My forecast is up -

The coin's guess is ... heads - up also.

Wonder of wonders - technical ability beat luck for a change - the score stands at Marlyn 26 - 26 and 10 and the coin is 29 - 23 and 10.

Friday Wrappers

Wow! - I've said it before I'll say it again - when the up/down ratio drops below 35 look out above.

The money just keeps rolling in - the model portfolio is up to 14.08% and the benchmark is printing 5.74%. My trading portfolio is doing very well too. It currently contains GGB, AKS, AMAT, and the new kid - ANR. I think I'm late to the dance on ANR I should have picked up on it about 6 weeks ago but we'll hold for awhile and see where it goes. I'll share the filter I'm using for this one with you over the weekend. It is interesting.

The three amigos are doing their thing as usual and it makes me nervous when the beloved of the beloved can't move out of their own way - MSFT was up 33 cents today while remaining range bound, AAPL managed to make 70 cents today for all of its loyal followers (these are not bad numbers) and GOOG dropped about half of its increase but still managed to close up by 10 bucks. I won't bore you with how much opportunity you GOOG holders missed today - you already know that story - in three part harmony.

Going to be a short post today so let's get to the forecast - the VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio is now 63%. And this guy says we remain oversold and vulnerable.


The fact that it bobbed up and down and back up again in the past three days doesn't really mean anything special. The only thing that matters any more is where the up/down ratio sits and that says - down Monday.

The INDU ATR is up to 96.47 and that isn't bad. It means that while we might have a down day Monday it probably won't be multiple down days.

I'm calling for a breather on Monday and then we'll see what happens after that.

The coin meanwhile calls for ... heads - up day Monday.

The score stands at Marlyn 25 - 26 and 10 and the coin is 29 - 22 and 10 - that lucky old coin ain't got nothin' to do but roll around Marlyn's desk all day.